941
FXUS63 KGRB 230441
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1141 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
WE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT A COUPLE HOURS EARLY, AS WINDS AND WAVES HAVE SUBSIDED
A BIT ON LAKE MICHIGAN.
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LIKELY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
- ALTHOUGH THERE ARE INTERMITTENT LOW (20 TO 50%) RAIN CHANCES
INTO NEXT WEEK, THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED HEAVIER RAIN OR SEVERE
WEATHER IS LOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
TEMPERATURES: WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK
STEADY WARMING WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA AND HEIGHTS BUILD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. A BLOCKING PATTERN WITH AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US BOOKENDED BY UPPER LOWS OVER THE
WESTERN/EASTERN US SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, HIGHS LIKELY WILL EXCEED 80 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA, WITH SOME COOLING ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN. SOMEWHAT GREATER
SPREAD IN TEMPS SEEN BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, LIKELY OWING TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT AND AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING.
PRECIPITATION: LOW SHOWER/STORM CHANCES AT TIMES
OVERALL, THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL OR SEVERE
STORMS IS QUITE LOW OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
SATURDAY WHILE A BROAD TROUGH PIVOTS EAST FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A SMALL (20-40%) SHOWER CHANCE EXISTS OVER FAR EASTERN
WISCONSIN AHEAD OF THE WAVE TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING WHILE
THE HIGHER SHOWER CHANCES (30-50%) LOOK TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, WITH
VERY WEAK MUCAPE, THUNDER CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW.
LOW (20-30%) SHOWER/STORM CHANCES PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WEEK AS
DIURNAL INSTABILITY INTERACTS WITH LOW-AMPLITUDE LOW
PREDICTABILITY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. HOWEVER, MOST HOURS WILL BE
DRY.
LITTLE SIGNAL FOR RAIN IS EVIDENT LATE NEXT WEEK AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A DRIER AIRMASS.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
/18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD, BUT MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAKESHORE/FOX VALLEY
AREAS OVERNIGHT/TOWARD DAYBREAK, THEN SPREAD WESTWARD INTO NC/C
WI BY MID TO LATE MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID-EVENING SATURDAY, BUT IFR
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NC/FAR NE WI LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL IMPACT NC/C WI (AND THE WESTERN TAF SITES)
THROUGH ABOUT 09Z/SAT, WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SATURDAY. FARTHER EAST, RAIN CHANCES ARE LOWER,
AND NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE GRB/ATW/MTW TAFS AT THIS
TIME.
LIGHT TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.........KIECKBUSCH
DISCUSSION.....JM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
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