606
FXUS63 KGRB 130610
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
110 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
- COOLER, BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
EARLY TODAY: SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
A LOW-LEVEL JET INTERACTING WITH A MID-LEVEL ZONALLY ORIENTED
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS PRODUCING FAST-MOVING SHOWERS. THUNDER IS
QUITE ISOLATED GIVEN THE MEAGER CAPE ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL.
DESPITE THE WEAK INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES UNDER 500 J/KG, GUSTY
WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH COULD OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS/STORMS. THIS
RISK SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET WEAK
WEAKENS.
THIS AFTERNOON: STORM RISK ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. ONCE AGAIN, STRONG MID-
LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION, WITH THE FRONTAL
TIMING AND UNSTABLE SECTOR LIMITING ANY RISK TO EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. HOWEVER, MODEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK
SYNOPTIC FORCING AND THE DIFFUSE BOUNDARY SWINGING THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON CASTS DOUBT ON ROBUST STORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH ONLY 20-40% CHANCES FOR A STORM IN THE 1 PM TO
5 PM WINDOW ACROSS FAR EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ELONGATED
HODOGRAPHS AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH MLCAPE FORECAST
AROUND 1000 J/KG WOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL WITH ANY STORMS, IN
ADDITION TO STRONG, GUSTY WINDS.
SUNDAY-FRIDAY: COOLER, INTERMITTENT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
IN THE WAKE OF SATURDAY'S FRONTAL PASSAGE, A COOLER AIRMASS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEK, RESULTING IN BELOW
AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS, MAINLY IN THE 60S AND 70S.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES RETURNING FOR MID-WEEK AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE BROADER TROUGH. AT THIS TIME,
THE HIGHEST CHANCES (50-80%) ARE FOCUSED ON THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH FORECAST DETAILS WILL BE BETTER RESOLVED IN
COMING DAYS. IT'S TOO EARLY TO ASSESS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL,
BUT BROADLY SPEAKING, INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY WEAK, GIVEN
THE OVERALL PATTERN.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ARE WORKING IN
TANDEM TO BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CENTRAL WI TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE AS ANY OF THESE SHOWERS
PASS OVER A TERMINAL ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CIGS DOWN TO AROUND
5KFT. AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH COULD CREATE AID STORMS IN PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF 25-30KT WIND GUSTS NOW THROUGH 08Z, MAINLY FROM
CENTRAL TO FAR NORTHEAST WI. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EXITING EAST-
CENTRAL WI BY 12Z SAT. IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING PRECIP AN AREA
OF MVFR STATUS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL WI EARLY SAT MORNING,
HOWEVER, CIGS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
A SECOND COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
EAST-CENTRAL WI.
GUSTY WINDS TO 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BY 14-16Z SAT.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...GK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page