633
FXUS63 KGRB 031745
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1245 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT
TIMES THROUGHOUT TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG AND PRODUCE STRONG, GUSTY WINDS.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
PRECIPITATION/THUNDER CHANCES...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY
THIS MORNING SHOWED DRY CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
EASTERN AND CENTRAL WI, WHILE SOME FOG WAS DEVELOPING IN NORTH-
CENTRAL WI WHERE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED AND WINDS ARE CALM. ANTICIPATE
THE FOG, DENSE AT TIMES, TO CONTINUE IN NORTH-CENTRAL WI THROUGH
THIS MORNING BEFORE BURNING OFF AFTER SUNRISE. MEANWHILE, THE
BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN THE DRIVER FOR PRECIP OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
WAS LOCATED ACROSS IA EARLY THIS MORNING PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THIS BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO STAY MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY, ITS CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL KEEP A VERY LOW CHANCE (15-25%) OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
ADDITIONALLY, CAMS ARE INDICATING A LAKE BREEZE OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL GENERATE AN ISOLATED LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE
WI/UPPER MI BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GENERALLY, THE
STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL BE PULSE-LIKE STORMS, BUT A FEW MAY
PRODUCE STRONG, GUSTY WINDS.
AFTER THIS EVENING, THE FORECAST BECOMES MUDDLED DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE REMNANTS OF THE LAKE BREEZE AND ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES INTERACTING WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW
PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT
LAKES SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
LOOKS TO TRAIL THIS SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SINCE CAMS AND
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WITH THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING
OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING WHEN AND WHERE ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
AND THEIR SEVERITY FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MAIN TAKEAWAY IS,
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND, BUT MONITOR THE FORECAST AS SMALL SCALE FEATURES EVOLVE.
A DRIER FORECAST LOOKS TO DEVELOP FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES THEN INDICATE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS OCCURRING SOMETIME MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S
TO LOW 70S, HIGHEST IN EAST-CENTRAL WI. THIS WILL LEAD TO HEAT
INDICES IN THE LOW 90S IN EAST-CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST WI.
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ARE PROGGED TO SLIGHTLY DECREASE FOR
SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY, BUT THIS MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON
WHAT PRECIP OCCURS. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT DEW POINTS
SHOULD REMAIN AT SLIGHTLY MORE TOLERABLE LEVELS.
AVIATION
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED AREAS OF STATUS ARE LINGERING
BELOW AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE IS ALSO AN AREA OF
EXPANDING SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL WI THAT MAY IMPACT ALL TAF SITES,
EXPECT RHI THROUGH ABOUT 22Z. CHANCE FOR -TSRA AT RHI DOES EXIST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON 22Z-04Z WITH A ROUND OF STORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG A LAKE BREEZE SINKING SOUTH OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
BUT SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE. AS PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END
AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN
FOG AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES IS LOW SO HAVE LIMITED VSBY IMPACTS TO
MVFR WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
FOR SATURDAY A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED AS ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....KRUK
AVIATION.......GK
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