195
FXUS63 KGRB 220620
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
120 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- TRANQUIL AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER RETURNS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
AND HEAT INDICES REACHING INTO THE 90S.
- PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY, THOUGH TIMING, COVERAGE, AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 119 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A COLD FRONT
STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS
MORNING. A LINGERING 5000 FT CLOUD DECK OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN HAS
MOSTLY DISSIPATED, LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES, WHILE A BROAD HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS IS GRADUALLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES CLOSER TO THE REGION, WINDS AND WAVES
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS STILL A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 KTS OVER THE TIP OF THE DOOR PENINSULA. WILL LET THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUE TO EXPIRATION TO ENSURE WINDS HAVE
COMFORTABLY DIMINISHED.
FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THE HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES, BRINGING QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER TO NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SIT DOWNSTREAM
OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, PLACING THE
AREA WITHIN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PERSISTENT FLOW WILL
KEEP THE DEEPER INSTABILITY SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
FRIDAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN
THE MID-70S TO LOWER 80S, ALONG WITH COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING
INTO THE 40S AND 50S. DIURNAL FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH
BASES AROUND 4000 TO 6000 FEET WILL DEVELOP EACH LATE MORNING AND
DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET.
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL EXPAND EASTWARD TOWARD
THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH WILL DRAW A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS NORTHWARD
INTO WISCONSIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN,
WITH DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE LOWER 70S. THIS COMBINATION WILL
YIELD AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES APPROACHING THE MID 90S ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. POSITIONED ON THE NORTHEAST
FRINGE OF THE MID-LEVEL HEAT DOME, NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL BE IN
A FAVORABLE CORRIDOR FOR PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (20 TO 50
PERCENT) FROM SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE REGARDING
THE TIMING, TRACKS, AND ORGANIZATION OF POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME RANGE. MACHINE LEARNING
GUIDANCE INDICATES LOW OVERALL PROBABILITIES FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER, BUT THUNDERSTORM TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN
FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
ON THURSDAY, FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN FOUR AND
SIX THOUSAND FEET. THE MAY BE A PERIOD WHERE SKIES BECOME A BROKEN
DECK, BUT WILL BE IN THE VFR CATEGORY. NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE
ON WEDNESDAY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
BY MID TO LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LMZ521-522-541>543.
DISCUSSION.....MPC
AVIATION.......ECKBERG
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