310
FXUS63 KGRB 221710
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1210 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TRANQUIL AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER RETURNS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
AND HEAT INDICES REACHING INTO THE 90S.
- PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH TIMING, COVERAGE, AND SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN MN WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND
GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE CORE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT TO THE NE US BUT THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND MUCH
FURTHER WEST ACROSS WI. IN THE UPPER LEVELS WE WILL REMAIN IN
BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST. WHILE
THERE SHOULD BE SOME ACTIVITY ALOFT WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES THE
CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH TOO DRY FOR ANYTHING TO COME OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FORCING.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY START TO EXIT FRIDAY WITH LOWER
PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST AS THE RIDGE ALOFT NUDGES
TOWARD THE REGION. NO REAL WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD AS
WE REMAIN DRY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AS THE RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK UP WITH A RETURN OF HUMID CONDITIONS,
BUT ALSO A RETURN OF PRECIP/STORM CHANCES. SATURDAY WILL CARRY
MINOR CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN WI LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE SLIDING DOWN THE RIDGE.
THERE CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING TO BRING
SOME PRECIP WITH SOME INSTABILITY IN THE REGION LIKELY ALLOWING
FOR SOME STORMS AS WELL. WHILE TIMING IS NOT EXACTLY GREAT FOR
STRONGER STORMS THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR PRESENT TO PERHAPS BRING A
FEW STRONGER STORMS SO ITS WORTH MONITORING.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR STORMS THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHERE WAA AND A WARM FRONT AS THE PRIMARY
FORCING SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGH INSTABILITY AND A DECENT LLJ WILL
BRING IN ENOUGH SHEAR TO BRING SOME SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS.
OTHERWISE INCREASED UNCERTAINTY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
EVENTUALLY WE WILL SEE A FRONT PUSH THROUGH AND COOL THE REGION
OFF A TAD BUT SINCE THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE WE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EXPECT WARM CONDITIONS. LATER NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE
MAY REVERT BACK WEST A BIT AND ALLOW .
IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED FOR FRIDAY AS BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS MAY YIELD NEARSHORE
WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 3-5 FEET.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 944 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING QUIET
AVIATION WEATHER AND PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS. CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL YIELD TO SCATTERED
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AROUND 4 TO 5 KFT DEVELOPING BETWEEN 15Z AND
16Z. CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO 6 TO 7 KFT THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY THIS EVENING, LEAVING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERALL AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 15 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH SLIGHTLY STRONGER
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR DOOR COUNTY. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER DRY
HIGH PRESSURE. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND.
KOSH
CLEAR SKIES WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD, BUT EXPECT FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS
TO BUILD WITH DAYTIME HEATING BETWEEN 15-16Z. CLOUD BASES WILL
INITIALLY BE AROUND 5 KFT BEFORE LIFTING TO 6-7 KFT THIS
AFTERNOON. KEPT A TEMPO GROUP FOR A PERIOD OF BROKEN CEILINGS FROM
16-19Z. THESE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS
EVENING, LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
NORTHWEST OR NORTH WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE 5-10 KTS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 15 KTS ARE POSSIBLE, MOST LIKELY LATE IN THE MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER WAVES HAVE RETURNED TO OUR MARINE ZONES
AS HIGHER PRESSURE HAS NUDGED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT IN THE
WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS THOUGH THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGHER WINDS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF LAKE
MICHIGAN WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A COUPLE HOURS OF SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS LOWER PRESSURE BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON THE HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTH
LAKE AND THUS A LONGER PERIOD (6-12HRS) OF SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AK
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...AK
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