701
FXUS63 KGRB 102355
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
655 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER LATE
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
- POTENTIAL FOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME, RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS LOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT...
SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MODELS HINT THAT FOG
DEVELOPMENT WOULD NOT BE AS UBIQUITOUS OR AS DENSE AS THIS
MORNING.
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES (15-30%) RETURN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING OVER THE DAKOTAS
FORECAST TO PRODUCE SHORTWAVE/UPPER JET THAT SHIFTS EAST TOWARD
WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT. GRADIENT OF INSTABILITY FROM MN TO
SOUTHERN WI, AS IS THE STRONGER CONVERGENCE WITH LLJ. EVEN SO,
WITH THE WAVE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY FARTHER NORTH, CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ON TUESDAY MORNING, WITH PERHAPS
SLIGHT BOOST IN COVERAGE FARTHER NORTH DURING PEAK HEATING OF
AFTERNOON AS MLCAPES INCREASE OVER 1000J/KG. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OVER
40 KTS WOULD SUPPORT STRONGER STORM IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS. SPC
DOES KEEP THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE FARTHER SOUTH NEAR THE MORE
PERSISTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY/HIGHEST INSTABILITY.
RAIN CHANCES (30-50%) CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND THE FRONT REMAINS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA. SIMILAR TO EXPECTATIONS FOR LATE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY, APPEARS BETTER SIGNAL FOR SEVERE REMAINS SOUTH.
HOWEVER, LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THERE IS STRONGER
FORCING FARTHER NORTH AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. SEEMS LIKE THIS
TIME FRAME MAY HOLD THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS
OVER OUR AREA, ESPECIALLY IF THINGS SLOW A BIT AND THESE FACTORS
CATCH UP TO AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF PEAK HEATING ON WEDNESDAY.
MACHINE LEARNING PROGS SHOW A WEAK "BUMP" IN SEVERE PROBS TO
5-15% FOR WEDNESDAY AFTER A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN SEVERE POTENTIAL
EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK, THEN
CHANCES FOR RAIN (30-60%) RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY, PUSHING THE FRONT AND LINGERING INSTABILITY SOUTH AND
GENERALLY KEEPING THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGHS
WILL SETTLE INTO THE 70S REGIONWIDE. THE HIGH EVENTUALLY SHIFTS
EAST, ALLOWING FOR THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AT THE
ENTIRE WEEKEND IT APPEARS SUNDAY WOULD BE THE BEST CHANCE OUT OF
THE TWO DAYS TO BE DRY.
AVIATION
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
QUIET CONDITIONS PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH CLOUDS FILTER
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. FOG WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION
CONCERN, BUT SHOULD LARGELY IMPACT EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE
THE DEWPOINTS REMAIN THE HIGHEST AND MIXING HAS BEEN LOWER.
THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF IFR TO LIFR FOR MTW/GRB AND
POSSIBLY ATW IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE FOG AGAIN
DISSIPATES.
WINDS DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT,
COMING OUT OF THE EAST AT AROUND 3-5 KNOTS.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......UHLMANN
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