275
FXUS63 KGRB 111740
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1240 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GENERALLY SMALL (20-40%) CHANCES FOR A SHOWER/STORM AT TIMES
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH NEXT MORE ORGANIZED RAIN POTENTIAL
(50-70% CHANCE) AROUND SATURDAY. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
APPEAR LOW AT THIS TIME.
- LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING REGION-WIDE.
- NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
OVERALL, A FAIRLY LOW IMPACT WEATHER REGIME WILL PERSIST THROUGH
LATE WEEK. SEASONABLY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AND GREATER
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. SOME SMALL (20-40%)
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT SYNOPTIC
FORCING AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE WEAK. THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS, SO AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 29, WHERE INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY HIGHER.
RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FURTHER TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. HOWEVER, SHOWERS
AND STORM CHANCES (50-70%) WILL RETURN TO START THE WEEKEND AS
A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE ABOVE THE 95TH PERCENTILE
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY LOOK TO LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER
RISK, WITH LITTLE SIGNAL CURRENTLY INDICATED IN THE MACHINE
LEARNING GUIDANCE. GENERALLY DRIER AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS
FORECAST BEHIND THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.
OTHERWISE, SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT FLOW
AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. AT LEAST LOCALLY DENSE FOG MAY OCCUR,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FAVORABLE TIME OF YEAR WITH NIGHTS BECOMING
LONGER, BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOUD TRENDS OVERNIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM MAY OCCUR THROUGH
TONIGHT, CHANCES ARE TOO LOW (20-30%) AND CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
TOO LOW TO MENTION. AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY, POTENTIALLY LOCALLY DENSE WITH LIFR/IFR
VISIBILITY.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...JM
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