862
FXUS63 KGRB 011730
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
WITH HIGHS READING IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
- SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND UP TO 1" HAIL.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC RAIN/STORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
METEOROLOGICAL FALL IS OFF TO A WARM START AS EARLY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 80S, WITH DEWPOINT
READINGS IN THE LOW 70S IN/AROUND THE FOX VALLEY. AS SUCH, HEAT
INDICES HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS MUCH OF
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
STORM CHANCES TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING... FOCUS FOR THE NEAR-TERM
REVOLVES AROUND SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND TANDEM FRONT TRAVERSE
THE GREAT LAKES. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF A 40 TO 45
KNOT LLJ OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN BETWEEN AROUND 06 AND 10Z
WEDNESDAY, DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AS THEY TRACK FURTHER EAST
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STORMS WOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY ELEVATED, THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT DAMAGING WIND
THREAT GIVEN 40+ KNOT WIND AT THE TOP OF THE DRY LAYER. HAIL WOULD
BE A SECONDARY THREAT GIVEN MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND SKINNY CAPE
PROFILE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORM ACTIVITY,
THOUGH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL SHOULD BE HELD DOWN DUE TO
PROGRESSIVE STORM MOTION. GREATEST CHANCE (40 TO 50%) FOR
RECEIVING 0.5" OF QPF WILL BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN IN
PROXIMITY TO AXIS OF HIGHER PWATS.
EXTENDED... MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
PERIODIC RAIN/STORM CHANCES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
WARMING RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CONUS. HOWEVER, STORM
TIMING/PREDICTABILITY REMAINS LOW THUS FAR GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND MODEL UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING RETROGRADING
RIDGE. THIS WILL IN TURN AFFECT POTENTIAL COOLDOWN HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEK, THOUGH SIGNS POINT TOWARD ENTERING INTO A MORE
NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME.
AVIATION
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
REMNANT FOG BANK OVER THE FOX VALLEY HAS BURNED OFF AS OF EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON, GIVING WAY TO FAIR WEATHER CU FIELD BEGINNING TO
POP. CLOUD BASES SHOULD START AROUND 2 TO 4K FT, EVENTUALLY
LIFTING TO 5 TO 7K FT BY LATE AFTERNOON. SCT RAIN/STORMS THEN
ARRIVE FROM THE WEST AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY, DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE
AS THEY PROGRESS EAST. HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE PROB30 MENTION OF
TSRA FOR ALL TERMINALS, EXCLUDING RHI. GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCTIONS
IN VSBYS TO MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM ACTIVITY.
OTHERWISE, PREVAILING WESTERLY WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BEHIND THE STORMS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS SUCH, POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS TIME, THOUGH WAS TOO EARLY
TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
COMBINATION OF DRY AIR, SUBSIDENCE/MIXING FROM HIGH PRESSURE, AND
WARM TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. RHS
HAVE ALREADY DIPPED DOWN INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE SANDY SOIL
REGIONS IN THE FAR NORTH, AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE INTO
THE LOW 30S AND EVEN UPPER 20S OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GUSTS
TO 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER, MOISTURE
FROM PRIOR RAINFALL SHOULD KEEP FUELS FROM REACHING CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. LOOKING FORWARD, EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES TO EXPAND
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN, WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES
FOR SOAKING RAINFALL CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE MONTH, ESPECIALLY
AFTER WE GET OUR FIRST FROST/FREEZE.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....GOODIN
AVIATION.......GOODIN
FIRE WEATHER...GOODIN
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