451
FXUS63 KGRB 020736
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
236 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM FOR PORTAGE,
WAUPACA, WAUSHARA, WINNEBAGO AND WOOD COUNTIES.
- ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND UP TO 1" HAIL.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG OR SEVERE. THERE IS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1) OR SLIGHT (LEVEL
2) RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SOUTH OF A MERRILL TO MANITOWOC LINE.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC RAIN/STORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS WINNEBAGO, CALUMET AND
MANITOWOC COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO 850MB
WARM ADVECTION. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WAUSHARA COUNTY THROUGH 3 AM. MEANWHILE,
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WAS NOTED ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL WI WITH
COMPLEX OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA WHERE
A GUST TO 59 KNOTS WAS RECORDED. THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL WI BY 5 AM. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER.
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS COME TO AN END LATER THIS MORNING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A BREAK IN THE STORMS IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF STORMS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TIMING AND LOCATION HARD TO
PINPOINT BETWEEN THE DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE LATEST NAM
HAS TRENDED SOUTHWARD WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE WITH THE BEST
INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DAY 2
SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK HAS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OR SLIGHT
(LEVEL 2 OF 5) SOUTH OF A MERILL TO MANITOWOC LINE. FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THERE ARE PERIODIC CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
WHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS REGION THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ALONG/NEAR A WARM FRONT
SITUATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MN/WI, SLOWLY WORKING INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT, MAINLY AFTER 06Z. A LARGER, MORE INTENSE COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY IMPACT THE AREA AFTER 08-09Z, BUT THERE IS
STILL COME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW LARGE/INTENSE THIS AREA WILL BE
OR IF IT WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES.
CONTINUED TO USE TEMPO GROUPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR STORMS AT AUW/CWA, AND SWITCHED THE PROB30 GROUPS TO TEMPO
GROUPS AT GRB/ATW/MTW. DID ADD SOME GUSTY WINDS TO THE TEMPO
GROUPS AS 35+ KT WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF THE COMPLEX HOLDS
TOGETHER, AND EVEN A WEAKENING AREA OF CONVECTION COULD STILL
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS. USED A TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWER CHANCES AT
RHI OVERNIGHT AS WELL. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE
BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES, GUSTY WINDS AND
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.
PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST/EAST WI WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE THE HIGHEST. OUTSIDE OF
GUSTY WINDS IN/NEAR ANY STORM (AND POSSIBLE WAKE LOW IF A LARGER
COMPLEX OF STORMS OCCURS), WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
NOT AS WARM OR DRY ACROSS THE NORTH COMPARED TO TUESDAY. HIGHS
ACROSS THE NORTH SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE FAR NORTH IS LIKELY TO MISS OUT ON THE RAIN
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, THERE ARE PERIODIC CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOPEFULLY ONE OF
THE ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN.
MOISTURE FROM PRIOR RAINFALL SHOULD KEEP FUELS FROM REACHING
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. LOOKING FORWARD, EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES TO
EXPAND OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE MONTH, ESPECIALLY
AFTER WE GET OUR FIRST FROST/FREEZE.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....ECKBERG
AVIATION.......BERSCH
FIRE WEATHER...BERSCH/ECKBERG
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