949
FXUS63 KGRB 140701
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
201 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- CHILLY TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD FROST
ACROSS NORTHERN WI EARLY MORNING.
- A ROUND OR TWO OF HEAVY RAIN AND STORMS IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRLA WI. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT IS LOW.
- HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OR A GALE WATCH IS
IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL MARINE
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO GUSTY WINDS OR
DIMINISHING WAVES.
- HIGH WAVES WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT
LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WHERE A BEACH HAZARDOUS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
FORECAST FOR A A ROUND OR TWO OF HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING REMAINS ON TRACK. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW
DRAWING SEASONALLY HIGH MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. EXPECT RAIN TO
INITIALLY PUSH INTO CENTRAL WI DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER, THE EXACT TIMING FOR THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DRY AIR IN THE
LOW-LEVELS THAT WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME. THIS INITIAL ROUND WILL
LIKELY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT SPREADS ACROSS
THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED
BEGINNING THIS EVENINGS OVER CENTRAL WI AS A STRONG LLJ PUSHES
NOISES INTO THE REGION. THIS SECOND ROUND IS EXPECTED TO BRING A
MORE FOCUSED AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO CENTRAL AND EAST-
CENTRAL WI LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BETWEEN THESE TWO
ROUNDS OF RAIN HREF LPMM 24HR RAINFALL TOTALS SHOW A CORRIDOR OF
2-3" TOTALS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WAUSAU TO STURGEON BAY WITH 0.5
TO 1" NORTH OF THAT LINE. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS HIGHER END
CORRIDOR MAY STILL SHIFT NORTH OR SOUTH SLIGHTLY. A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT WEAK INSTABILITY
KEEPS THE SEVERE THREAT LOW. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST
TO EAST TUESDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE THEM BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE REMAINS OF TUESDAY AND MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK A BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED SET UP
OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP A 40-70%
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, HOWEVER, IT WILL LIKELY NOT RAIN THAT ENTIRE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL NEXT
WEEK DEPENDING ON WHERE THE BOUNDARY SETS UP EACH DAY.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR REST OF TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF FROST OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND
FAR NORTHEAST WI LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
ON MONDAY, RAIN WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE LARGE AREA
OF RAIN. EVEN WITH THE RAIN, CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY, WITH GUSTS
OVER 20 KTS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL CONTINUE STATEWIDE. CIGS ARE
LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY ON MONDAY EVENING, WITH
AREAS OF IFR CIGS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE NIGHT CENTRAL TO NORTH-
CENTRAL WI. LOCAL IFR-MVFR VISIBILITY WILL ALSO OCCUR. THE RAIN
SHOULD END LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, BUT
CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE ON TUESDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS ON LAKE MICHIGAN AND GREEN BAY. STRONGEST WINDS, WITH
GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. DURING THE PERIOD WAVES ON LAKE MICHIGAN MAY REACH 12+ FT.
WHILE WINDS WON'T BE AS STRONG TUESDAY AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 20-25KTS
WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. WITH
THE HIGH WAVES STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO CREATE
DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AT LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ005-010>013-
018-019-021.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR WIZ022.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WIZ040-050.
DISCUSSION.....GK
AVIATION.......JLA
MARINE.........GK
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