668
FXUS63 KGRB 061820
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
120 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH WILL KEEP
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
- PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
REST OF TODAY...LARGELY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY,
APART FROM SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING GUSTS UP TO 25
TO 30 MPH TO THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE WINDS
SHIFT WESTWARDS OVERNIGHT. WILL LIKELY STILL SEE SUFFICIENT GUSTS
OVERNIGHT TO KEEP ANY FOG FROM FORMING, SO THE QUIET CONDITIONS
WILL EXTEND INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
REST OF THE FORECAST...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD TO MONITOR
FOR FIRE WEATHER AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP TOWARDS THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL BE
LOWER DURING THIS PERIOD SO OVERALL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW
AT THIS TIME.
FROST MAY MAKE A RETURN TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY MORNING, BUT
GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MORE PESSIMISTIC ON THIS OCCURRENCE, WITH
PROBABILITY OF DROPPING BELOW 37 DEGREES LARGELY LIMITED TO A
SMALL SECTION OF NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TO AROUND 15%. THE CHANGES
ARE LARGELY A RESULT OF AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND WINDS
SHIFTING SOUTHWESTWARDS OVERNIGHT.
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL REMAIN SCARCE IN THE FORECAST, BUT A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS MAY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE CROSS THE AREA. LACK OF MOISTURE WILL LARGELY INHIBIT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE MOISTURE FOR THIS INITIAL EVENT.
QUIET WEATHER THEN LARGELY CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE SETS UP OVER EASTERN CONUS. EXPECT A STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY PUSH OF WARMER AIR, WHICH COULD BRING PORTIONS OF
THE AREA BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS.
AVIATION
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BUT
STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY STILL POSE A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY IN THE EVENING. GUSTS IN THE
22 TO 28 KNOT RANGE ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING AT THE SURFACE. ALOFT, SOME STRONGER WINDS MAY
PROVIDE A PERIOD OF LLWS FOR EASTERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT, SO KEPT
THIS INCLUDED IN THE TAF FOR NOW BEFORE WINDS SHIFT WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. QUIETER CONDITIONS THEN FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. GALE
FORCE GUSTS CONTINUE TO BE UNLIKELY, SO AN UPGRADE TO A GALE
WARNING IS NOT EXPECTED. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE ON THE BAY
MID- EVENING, AND SUBSIDE ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS GRADUALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....UHLMANN
AVIATION.......UHLMANN
MARINE.........UHLMANN
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