227
FXUS63 KGRB 100603
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
103 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND WITH INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
MIDDLE 80S. RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE.
- 60-70% PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE.
- ANOTHER 50-60% CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN LATE NEXT WEEK WITH
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS THE REGION
WILL BE IN BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND AN
APPROACHING LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
CREATE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS WISCONSIN, ALLOWING FOR ROBUST
WARM AIR ADVECTION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO 30-35 MPH
DURING THE DAY AS DAYTIME HIGHS SOAR INTO THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM
THE LAKESHORE. CLOSER TO THE LAKE HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER 70S. WINDS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES WITH A LOOSER PRESSURE GRADIENT
LEADING TO CALMER WINDS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. DESPITE LESS
WINDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY, HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY.
HIGHS THIS WEEKEND COULD APPROACH OR EVEN BREAK RECORD HIGHS BOTH
DAYS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE DELAYED A BIT AS
THE MAIN ENERGY FROM AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SWING
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INSTEAD OF MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
MEANS RELATIVELY LOW (10-20%) CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A BETTER CHANCE (60-70%) MONDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY HIGH CHANCE FOR RAIN, THE AMOUNT OF
RAIN THAT IS EXPECTED TO FALL IS FAIRLY MINIMAL. THE PROBABILITY
FOR 0.1 INCHES OR GREATER HAS RISEN A BIT TO 40-50% BUT NOT ENOUGH
THAT THE QPF SHOULD BE APPRECIABLY HIGHER.
ANOTHER MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MAY COMES DURING
THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS GLOBAL ENSEMBLES SHOW A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. STILL A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT THIS LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SOAKING RAIN OVER THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. LOW-END VFR
CIGS WITH CLOUD BASES OF 5000-7000 FT AGL WITH HIGH CLOUDS ALOFT
WERE PRESENT AT THE START OF THIS TAF PERIOD. THESE LOW-END VFR
CIGS WILL EXIT THE REGION BY 09Z, LEAVING THE HIGH CLOUDS
OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
THE OTHER STORY FOR THIS TAF PERIOD ARE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ON
SATURDAY, SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO PERIODS OF LLWS. THE FIRST LLWS
PERIOD IS ONGOING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS SURFACE WINDS ARE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST, WHILE WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE ARE FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 35-40 KTS. AS MIXING BEGINS SATURDAY MORNING,
THE LLWS WILL END, BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AND
INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO NEAR 30 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON. THE
NEXT PERIOD OF LLWS WILL OCCUR AROUND SUNSET AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AT 45-50 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT, TURNING SOUTHERLY AND
INCREASING FURTHER ON SATURDAY AND DECREASING SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY.
WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4-9 FT ON LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING AS WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
DAILY RECORD AND FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE SHOWN BELOW FOR
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 10, AND SUNDAY, OCTOBER 11.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR OCTOBER 10:
RECORD FORECAST
GREEN BAY: 82/1938 82
WAUSAU: 82/1928,1930,1938 83
RHINELANDER: 81/1938 83
APPLETON: 79/1938 81
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR OCTOBER 11:
RECORD FORECAST
GREEN BAY: 83/2024 79
WAUSAU: 81/1928 82
RHINELANDER: 81/1910,1928 82
APPLETON: 82/1928,2024 79
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......KRUK
MARINE.........KURIMSKI
CLIMATE........KRUK
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