522
FXUS63 KGRR 142057
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
357 PM EST SAT DEC 14 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT
- RAIN MONDAY
- SNOW CHANCES WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST SAT DEC 14 2024
- FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA FOR FREEZING RAIN. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW DEW POINTS IN
THE TEENS ACROSS SE LOWER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING, ADVECTING LOWER DEW POINTS IN AS WARM
AIR OVERRUNS COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS THE CLASSIC
RETREATING COLD HIGH, ADVANCING LOW/WARM PUSH THAT CAN PRODUCE
SEVERAL HOURS OF ICING BEFORE SKIN TEMPS AND DEW POINTS RISE ABOVE
FREEZING AND ICE AND RESIDUAL HARD PACKED SNOW ON THE ROADS CAN
MELT OFF.
THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR ZONES SHOULD SEE ICING PERSIST WELL INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS EAST-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS THERE. WE
HAVE THE ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 11 AM. WINDS GO SOUTHEAST THEN
SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY IMPROVE.
- RAIN MONDAY
A SECONDARY WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY-TUESDAY WITH RAIN BUT IT
APPEARS THE HEAVIER PRECIP PASSES SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN. POPS
WILL BE SHADED HIGHER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ZONES APPEAR TO GET DRY SLOTTED.
- SNOW CHANCES WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY
COLDER AIR FILTERS BACK IN ON WEDNESDAY PERSISTING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERMAL PROFILES SHOW IT IS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW, BUT
DETAILS IN INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE SHOWING A LOT OF
ENSEMBLE SPREAD/UNCERTAINTY. THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR CYCLONIC FLOW
AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW WED-THU AND A CLIPPER LOW LATE IN THE WEEK OR
NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1124 AM EST SAT DEC 14 2024
A BRIEF PERIOD (3-6 HOURS) OF FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
ALL OF OUR TERMINALS FROM MID TO LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DETERIORATE
TO MVFR THEN IFR TONIGHT AS LOW CIGS DEVELOP AND THE -FZRA
DEVELOPS. IN ADDITION TO THIS HAZARD LLWS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AS SSE WINDS AT 2 KFT AGL INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KTS.
THE -FZRA WILL TRANSITION TO -RA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
SUNDAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN AT AND NEAR THE SFC. MAINLY IFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY MORNING THRU 18Z SUN DUE TO LOW
CIGS AND LINGERING LIGHT RAIN.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-044-050>052-056>059-064>067-
071>074.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR MIZ039-040-045-046.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
DISCUSSION...OSTUNO
AVIATION...LAURENS
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