377
FXUS63 KGRR 150035
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
735 PM EST SAT DEC 14 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT
- RAIN MONDAY
- SNOW CHANCES WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST SAT DEC 14 2024
- FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA FOR FREEZING RAIN. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW DEW POINTS IN
THE TEENS ACROSS SE LOWER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING, ADVECTING LOWER DEW POINTS IN AS WARM
AIR OVERRUNS COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS THE CLASSIC
RETREATING COLD HIGH, ADVANCING LOW/WARM PUSH THAT CAN PRODUCE
SEVERAL HOURS OF ICING BEFORE SKIN TEMPS AND DEW POINTS RISE ABOVE
FREEZING AND ICE AND RESIDUAL HARD PACKED SNOW ON THE ROADS CAN
MELT OFF.
THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR ZONES SHOULD SEE ICING PERSIST WELL INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS EAST-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS THERE. WE
HAVE THE ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 11 AM. WINDS GO SOUTHEAST THEN
SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY IMPROVE.
- RAIN MONDAY
A SECONDARY WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY-TUESDAY WITH RAIN BUT IT
APPEARS THE HEAVIER PRECIP PASSES SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN. POPS
WILL BE SHADED HIGHER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ZONES APPEAR TO GET DRY SLOTTED.
- SNOW CHANCES WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY
COLDER AIR FILTERS BACK IN ON WEDNESDAY PERSISTING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERMAL PROFILES SHOW IT IS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW, BUT
DETAILS IN INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE SHOWING A LOT OF
ENSEMBLE SPREAD/UNCERTAINTY. THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR CYCLONIC FLOW
AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW WED-THU AND A CLIPPER LOW LATE IN THE WEEK OR
NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 732 PM EST SAT DEC 14 2024
A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH THE BEST
TIMEFRAME BETWEEN 03Z TO 09Z. LATEST RADAR HAS PRECIPITATION ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM THE NW TO THE SE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TO
BENTON HARBOR MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. IT WILL FIRST AFFECT AZO,
MKG AND BIV. ALL REMAINING SITES WILL THEN BE AFFECTED BY 05Z.
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE EVENING
GOING TO MVFR THROUGH THE ABOVE TIMEFRAME. IFR WILL THEN DOMINATE
AFTER 08Z. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM, WITH -RA EARLY IN THE MORNING.
IFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH PERIODS OF -DZ
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE FREEZING RAIN ENDS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST A LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN. THIS WILL BRING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT TO ALL TAF
SITES. EXPECT LLWS BETWEEN 08Z TO AROUND 12Z AT MKG, GRR, AZO AND
BTL. IT WILL OCCUR AT LAN AND JXN BETWEEN 08Z TO 15Z.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-
044-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ039-040-
045-046.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
DISCUSSION...OSTUNO
AVIATION...LAURENS/CERU
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