059
FXUS63 KGRR 151633
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1133 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZING RAIN ENDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY
- RAIN MONDAY
- TURNING COLDER MID WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 316 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
- FREEZING RAIN ENDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 30S OVER A FEW COUNTIES IN
THE SOUTHERN CWA. CALLS TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT IN THOSE COUNTIES
REVEAL LITTLE IF ANY IMPACTS FROM EARLIER FREEZING RAIN. AS SUCH,
WE HAVE REMOVED ALLEGAN, VAN BUREN, KALAMAZOO, AND CALHOUN
COUNTIES FROM THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. COUNTIES FARTHER EAST
ARE CLOSER TO LOWER DEWPOINTS AND CORRESPONDING LOWER WET BULB
ZERO TEMPERATURES AND WILL LIKELY SEE FREEZING RAIN FOR A LITTLE
LONGER. THE REST OF THE COUNTIES NOW HAVE AN EXPIRATION TIME OF
11 AM. AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THIS MORNING, WE'LL TRIM
COUNTIES FROM THE HEADLINE AS APPROPRIATE.
AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY INCREASE, REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS THE THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO SOUTHERN LOWER FROM NORTHERN IN.
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES, WE'LL SEE BREAKS DEVELOP IN THE
PRECIPITATION AND POPS WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
SECONDARY ROADS NORTH OF I-96 REMAIN SNOW PACKED AND WILL RETAIN
FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES LONGER AND IS THE MAIN REASON WE
PUSHED THE ADVISORY LATER INTO THE MORNING.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE TO AROUND 40.
- RAIN MONDAY
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS
LOWER MI MONDAY. AHEAD OF IT, RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY
MORNING AND BE EAST OF THE CWA BY LATE IN THE DAY. BETWEEN A TENTH
AND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY. MONDAY WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. SOUTH WINDS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
TO AROUND 50 OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA AND MID 40S IN THE NORTH BEFORE
COOLER AIR ARRIVES LATE IN THE DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
- TURNING COLDER MID WEEK
H8 TEMPS WILL FALL TO AROUND -14C WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT AND WE MAY SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP.
HOWEVER, THE ARCTIC AIR IS FLEETING AND WILL BE LIFTING OUT BY
LATE THURSDAY.
A CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE STRAITS FRIDAY WILL BRING IN ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLDER AIR. WE'RE LIKELY TO SEE SOME SYNOPTIC SNOW WITH
THE CLIPPER FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
WEEKEND. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SATURDAY
NORTHERLY WHICH WOULD KEEP THE SNOW SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE LAKE
SHORE. ANY CHANGE IN THAT WIND DIRECTION COULD SEE SOME SNOW
SPREAD INLAND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE AT ALL THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO PATCHY FOG LOW CIGS AND LINGERING LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. THE MIX OF IFR/LIFR WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT DUE TO AREAS
OF FOG AND LOW CIGS. SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP MONDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A CONTINUED MIX OF LIFR/IFR
EXPECTED DUE TO VERY LOW CIGS AND SOME PATCHY LINGERING FOG.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...LAURENS
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