718
FXUS63 KGRR 170007
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
707 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING
- MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
- COLD WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 152 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
- SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE OH VALLEY DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST HERE
IN MI SO WE ARE EXPECTING ANY OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS FROM
THIS SYSTEM TO BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWN
TO BE FAIRLY DISORGANIZED AS IT TRACKS INTO THE AREA BUT IT MAY
INCREASE IN STRENGTH AS IT MOVES AWAY. THE DGZ DOES MOISTEN UP AND
THERE IS SOME LIFT IN THAT ZONE SO WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR IT
CLOSELY. THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE LOOKS TO BE ABOUT WHEN THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SO, A RISK FOR SOME SLICK
SPOTS ON THE ROADWAYS EXISTS. ENSEMBLE SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
HOLDING FAIRLY STEADY IN FAVORING MOST AREAS TO SEE LESS THAN AN
INCH FROM THIS RELATIVELY WEAK SYSTEM.
- MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
THIS NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE REGION LATER
THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DURATION OF DEEPER MOISTURE
AND LIFT WILL BE GREATER SO WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE MORE IMPACTS.
THIS SYSTEM COULD CATCH PART OF THE THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY
MORNING COMMUTES. ENSEMBLE MEAN ACCUMULATIONS ARE GENERALLY 1 TO
3 INCHES BUT THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONGST THE
MEMBERS.
- COLD WEEKEND
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
TO START THE WEEKEND. HERE IN LOWER MI WE WILL SEE AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. THIS WILL ACT TO PUSH MOST OF THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AWAY FROM OUR CWA. TEMPS AT 925 MB FALL STEADILY INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS SHOWS A 925 MB THERMAL TROUGH OF -10 DEG
C OVER GRR AT 12Z SUNDAY. WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR FRESH SNOW AND
RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES, WE WILL LIKELY END UP WITH A VERY COLD
NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY
BEEN TRENDING DOWNWARD FOR SATURDAY NIGHTS VALUES. WE WILL FEATURE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 700 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH SCOURING ANY IFR VSBYS AND
ENDING MOST PRECIPITATION. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
BEHIND THE FRONT. MVFR CIGS WILL DOMINATE AT ALL TAF SITES AS
THERE IS STILL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PERIODS OF IFR ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS SUNRISE. GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. ANY IFR CIGS TOMORROW
MORNING WILL IMPROVE BETWEEN 12Z TO 17Z WITH MVFR CIGS IMPROVING
TO VFR AFTER 21Z.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
DISCUSSION...MJS
AVIATION...CERU/THOMAS
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