952
FXUS63 KGRR 300826
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
326 AM EST THU JAN 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN/WINTRY MIX TONIGHT/FRIDAY
- CHANCE OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY
- WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE MID WEEK NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 326 AM EST THU JAN 30 2025
- RAIN/WINTRY MIX TONIGHT/FRIDAY
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL TRACK TOWARD THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT WILL NOT ONLY
PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE CWA, RAIN WILL ALSO MOVE
INTO THE CWA TONIGHT. WE'LL BEGIN THE DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE,
HOWEVER, BUT SEE CLOUDS ADVECT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THERE'S BEEN A SIGNAL FOR SEVERAL DAYS THAT THE
CENTRAL CWA MAY SEE A BRIEF 3-4 HR PERIOD AROUND 12Z OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN...GENERALLY NORTH OF M-57 AND SOUTH OF US-10.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THAT AREA WILL COOL OVERNIGHT TO AROUND
FREEZING FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AND A BRIEF GLAZE MAY DEVELOP. BY
MID MORNING, THOUGH, SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING
ENDING THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT.
ONCE THE LOW MOVES EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON, SOME COLDER AIR WILL
ADVECT SOUTH BEHIND IT AND WE'LL LIKELY SEE THE LIGHT RAIN MIX
WITH SOME WET SNOW. LITTLE, IF ANY, ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
- CHANCE OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES WILL
PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN A WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
ENVIRONMENT. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING AS LIGHT SNOW WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT MIXED
RAIN/SNOW ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT, BEING AIDED BY A DECENT
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE
PACIFIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM, THERE ISN'T MUCH COLD AIR WITH IT
AND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S SUNDAY.
- WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE MID WEEK NEXT WEEK
MODELS HAVE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS REGARDING A MID WEEK SYSTEM AND SO
CONFIDENCE ON P-TYPE ISN'T VERY HIGH AT THIS POINT. THE ECMWF
DEVELOPS A LOW IN THE PLAINS AND TRACKS IT TOWARD CENTRAL LAKE
MICHIGAN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHEREAS THE GFS KEEPS THE SYSTEM MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A MIX OF THE SOLUTIONS
WOULD PUT SOME RAIN/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH. WE'LL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 AM EST THU JAN 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CURRENT BKN TO OVC CEILINGS AROUND 12,000 TO 15,000 FEET ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR THURSDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL WINDS
SHEAR WITH THE 850 MB JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. MVFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS MOVE IN SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MOST
SITES DROPPING BELOW 1,000 FEET BY 6Z FRIDAY. ADDED PROB30S FOR
RAIN/DRIZZLE AFTER 3Z TO AZO, BTL, AND JXN WITH THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...RAH
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