168
FXUS63 KGRR 301754
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1254 PM EST THU JAN 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN/WINTRY MIX TONIGHT/FRIDAY
- CHANCE OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY
- WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE MID WEEK NEXT WEEK
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1143 AM EST THU JAN 30 2025
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE RIDGING IS BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO THE AREA
TODAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE MOMENT AND TEMPERATURES THAT
ARE ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS ALREADY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS
WILL TOP OUT BETWEEN 39 AND 47 IN MOST AREAS WHICH IS 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE INCOMING SYSTEM FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A LOW
IS CENTERED IN MISSOURI AT 11AM AND IT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO
ILLINOIS TONIGHT. SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
TONIGHT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY. AT THIS
POINT, AND WE WILL DIVE INTO IT FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON, IT LOOKS
LIKE WE ARE LOOKING AT A MAINLY RAIN EVENT WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 326 AM EST THU JAN 30 2025
- RAIN/WINTRY MIX TONIGHT/FRIDAY
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL TRACK TOWARD THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT WILL NOT ONLY
PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE CWA, RAIN WILL ALSO MOVE
INTO THE CWA TONIGHT. WE'LL BEGIN THE DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE,
HOWEVER, BUT SEE CLOUDS ADVECT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THERE'S BEEN A SIGNAL FOR SEVERAL DAYS THAT THE
CENTRAL CWA MAY SEE A BRIEF 3-4 HR PERIOD AROUND 12Z OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN...GENERALLY NORTH OF M-57 AND SOUTH OF US-10.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THAT AREA WILL COOL OVERNIGHT TO AROUND
FREEZING FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AND A BRIEF GLAZE MAY DEVELOP. BY
MID MORNING, THOUGH, SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING
ENDING THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT.
ONCE THE LOW MOVES EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON, SOME COLDER AIR WILL
ADVECT SOUTH BEHIND IT AND WE'LL LIKELY SEE THE LIGHT RAIN MIX
WITH SOME WET SNOW. LITTLE, IF ANY, ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
- CHANCE OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES WILL
PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN A WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
ENVIRONMENT. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING AS LIGHT SNOW WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT MIXED
RAIN/SNOW ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT, BEING AIDED BY A DECENT
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE
PACIFIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM, THERE ISN'T MUCH COLD AIR WITH IT
AND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S SUNDAY.
- WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE MID WEEK NEXT WEEK
MODELS HAVE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS REGARDING A MID WEEK SYSTEM AND SO
CONFIDENCE ON P-TYPE ISN'T VERY HIGH AT THIS POINT. THE ECMWF
DEVELOPS A LOW IN THE PLAINS AND TRACKS IT TOWARD CENTRAL LAKE
MICHIGAN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHEREAS THE GFS KEEPS THE SYSTEM MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A MIX OF THE SOLUTIONS
WOULD PUT SOME RAIN/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH. WE'LL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1254 PM EST THU JAN 30 2025
THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS STARTING OUT VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS EXPECTED. THE GUSTS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD
SUNSET.
WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN GO LIGHT LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT. WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME MELTING, MODEL GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD 06Z. IN ADDITION,
LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ADVANCING NORTH WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING IN. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG I-96 LOOKS TO BE
TEMPORARY FOR A FEW HOURS, WHILE ALONG I-94 IT WILL LIKELY BE MORE
PERSISTENT THROUGH FRIDAY.
KMKG AND KGRR WILL LIKELY STAY MOSTLY DRY WITH JUST MID CLOUDS
HOLDING IN THROUGH 18Z FRI.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
UPDATE...DUKE
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...NJJ
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