599
FXUS63 KGRR 310757
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
257 AM EST FRI JAN 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN TODAY/WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE NORTH
- MIXED RAIN/SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
- WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE MID WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 AM EST FRI JAN 31 2025
- LIGHT RAIN TODAY/WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE NORTH
RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SOUTH OF I-96 SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WING OF THE CYCLONE OVER
OKLAHOMA. CONCURRENTLY, LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO IS
MOVING EAST AND THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS NEAR THE
STRAITS MOVING SOUTH.
THERE'S QUITE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AREAS THAT ARE CLEAR,
LIKE CAD AT 18 DEGREES AND MBL AT 23 AND THOSE WHERE LOW CLOUDS
ARE PRESENT, SUCH AS LDM AT 32 AND RQB AT 35. THERE'S A NARROW
WINDOW IN WHICH SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAY DEVELOP AROUND 12Z
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA, BUT CHANCES OF SEEING ICING SEEM TO BE
DECREASING AND THIS IS LOOKING MORE LIKE A GENERAL LIGHT RAIN
EVENT THIS MORNING.
THE RAIN SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THIS MORNING AT THE
SAME TIME THAT THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THE RESULT WILL BE
LIGHT RAIN MIXING WITH AND THEN CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW TO THE SOUTH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND
COLDER AIR FLOWS IN BEHIND THE NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT THAT
WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD AS NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP IN RELATION
TO THE LOW PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK LESS THAN AN INCH AND TRAVEL IMPACTS AREN'T ANTICIPATED.
- MIXED RAIN/SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
A CLIPPER MOVING EAST ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDFROM SOUTH TO NORTHER
WILL PUSH SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT VIA SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WING. THE AREA MOST
LIKELY TO SEE LIGHT SNOW WILL BE NORTH OF I-96. ONE TO TWO INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE THERE AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
- WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE MID WEEK
TONIGHT'S MODEL RUNS ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO
THE POTENTIAL MID WEEK SYSTEM.
THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IN PLACE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. A
STRONG FEED OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
MISSOURI VALLEY WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT. INITIALLY, WE'LL SEE LIGHT
SNOW DEVELOP, BUT AS WARM TEMPERATURES PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTH,
FREEZING RAIN MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. EVENTUALLY,
THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO JUST RAIN SOUTH OF I-96 WEDNESDAY.
IT'S TOO EARLY TO TELL YET HOW MUCH, IF ANY, ICE CAN BE EXPECTED,
BUT CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EST FRI JAN 31 2025
IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY WORK IN FROM THE SOUTH ALONG
WITH THE ONGOING RAIN FROM AZO TO JXN. VISIBILITIES WITH THE RAIN
ARE RANGING AROUND 2 TO 5 SM CURRENTLY WITH LOWER VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY MAINLY FROM AZO TO LAN AND SOUTH. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN BEFORE ENDING FRIDAY
EVENING WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR FRIDAY NIGHT.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...RAH
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