084
FXUS63 KGRR 010232
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
932 PM EST FRI JAN 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ONGOING RAIN EVENT WILL MIX WITH SOME SNOW BEFORE ENDING
- CLIPPER SYSTEM ON SUNDAY TO BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
- MONITORING MODEL TRENDS FOR MID NEXT WEEK SYSTEM
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 932 PM EST FRI JAN 31 2025
RGNL IR SAT TRENDS AND SFC OBS INDICATE PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS
OUR FCST AREA WITH A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW CLOUD COVER
DRIFTING IN FROM THE NORTH. MORE IN THE WAY OF CLEARING WILL OCCUR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST
HREF. MIN TEMPS IN THE TEENS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF OUR AREA BUT
SOME SINGLE DIGIT READINGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TYPICALLY COLDER
LOCATIONS OF OUR FAR NE AREA. OUR GOING FCST FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD LOOKS EXCELLENT WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST FRI JAN 31 2025
- ONGOING RAIN EVENT WILL MIX WITH SOME SNOW BEFORE ENDING
THE ONGOING RAIN EVENT HAS OVERPERFORMED A BIT IN OUR SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA, NAMELY ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
HAVE PUSHED TOWARDS 1.25 INCHES IN SPOTS. LOOKING AT HYDROGRAPHS
ACROSS THE AREA THERE ARE WITHIN BANK RISES THAT ARE TAKING PLACE.
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND SOME SMALLER
STREAMS MAY CLIMB OUT OF THEIR BANKS FOR A TIME THIS EVENING. WE
THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ALLEGAN, VAN BUREN AND
KALAMAZOO COUNTIES THIS EVENING.
THE UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE LOW MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO COME TO AN END. THE
PRECIPITATION IS BEING FOCUSED BY AN EAST-WEST STATIONARY BOUNDARY
THAT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME
ARE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. AS
TEMPERATURES COOL A BIT THIS EVENING A LIGHT MIXTURE OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. WE HAVE HAD REPORTS OF SOME SLEET
BRIEFLY MIXING IN AND WE EXPECT SOME SNOW AS WELL. ANY WINTRY
ACCUMULATIONS OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD AMOUNT TO LITTLE TO NONE AT
MOST LOCATIONS.
- CLIPPER SYSTEM ON SUNDAY TO BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. THIS HAS BEEN A FAIRLY CONSISTENT SYSTEM IN THE MODELS
WITH 1-2 OR 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR AND NORTH OF I-96. TO THE
SOUTH, A MIX WITH RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. WARMING TEMPERATURES AT
THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MUCH IN THE WAY OF WINTRY IMPACTS AT BAY.
- MONITORING MODEL TRENDS FOR MID NEXT WEEK SYSTEM
THE MID WEEK SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME MODEL DISPARITY TO IT. THE
OPERATIONAL ECWMF IS WARM WITH A TRACK OF THE LOW TO THE WEST. THE
ECMWF TRACK IS OVER THE TOP OF OUR AREA OR JUST WEST WITH A BIT OF
A DEEP LOW AROUND 998MB. THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH A FLATTER TRACK TO
OUR SOUTH. IN EITHER MODEL HOWEVER A SURGE OF WARMER AIR MOVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH +5C AT 850MB AT 06Z THURS NEAR AZO VIA
THE GFS, WHILE THE ECWMF HAS +10C. EITHER WAY THIS IS A WARM
SYSTEM THAT WOULD RESULT IN RAIN. NEITHER MODEL HAS MUCH IN THE
WAY ON SNOW ON THE LEADING EDGE AS THE WARM AIR NOSES IN.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 704 PM EST FRI JAN 31 2025
VFR DOMINATES AT GRR AND MKG WITH MVFR CIGS ELSEWHERE CLEARING
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AND CLEAR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. JXN WILL LINGER THE LONGEST. THERE IS SOME
CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH VFR DOMINATING THE PATTERN
AFTER 11Z.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ844-845-848-
849.
UPDATE...LAURENS
DISCUSSION...DUKE
AVIATION...CERU
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