681
FXUS63 KGRR 020026
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
726 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BRIEF BURST OF SNOW EARLY SUNDAY
- LIGHT SNOW NORTH MONDAY
- MESSY MIDWEEK WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2025
- BRIEF BURST OF SNOW EARLY SUNDAY
STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGS A QUICK-HITTING BURST OF SNOW EARLY
SUNDAY. DRY AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE
MID TEENS FENDS OFF THE SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE THE
MAIN 4 TO 6 HOUR DURATION OF SNOW OCCURS BETWEEN ROUGHLY 09Z AND
15Z SUNDAY. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY SLICKEN THE ROADS SUNDAY MORNING
FOR A TIME BEFORE TEMPS RECOVER ABOVE FREEZING IN THE AFTERNOON.
1 TO 2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED NORTH OF A LINE FROM
HOLLAND TO LANSING WITH LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED SOUTH OF
THERE. THERE IS A RISK OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE
AFTER THE BURST OF SNOW COMES THROUGH DUE TO A WARM WEDGE ALOFT
SNEAKING IN BUT PROBABLY MORE SO DUE TO THE LOSS OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND AN UNSATURATED DGZ. HOWEVER BY THAT TIME THE BULK OF
THE "BETTER" QPF SHOULD HAVE BAILED OFF TO THE EAST AND LITTLE IF
ANY ICE ACCRETION IS EXPECTED.
- LIGHT SNOW NORTH MONDAY
FAST/ZONAL 120-150 KT JET STRETCHING ACROSS THE NRN U.S. SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AND FGEN FORCING PROMOTES A RELATIVELY NARROW
BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY/MODEL DISCREPANCY
REGARDING WHERE THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW SETS
UP, BUT CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 1-2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS NEAR AND
NORTH OF THE U.S. 10 CORRIDOR. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR A LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THERE, DOWN TO ABOUT THE I-96
CORRIDOR.
THERE IS DECENT COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT
THIS SHOULD BE FAIRLY INCONSEQUENTIAL GIVEN THE LARGE SFC HIGH
BUILDING IN.
- MESSY MIDWEEK WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MODELS REGARDING THE
POTENTIALLY MESSY SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE SPREAD
IS EVIDENT IN BOTH TEMPS AND QPF, LEADING TO P-TYPE QUESTIONS
SHOULD WE SEE A DECENT SYSTEM COME THROUGH. THERE WILL BE DECENT
BAROCLINICITY NEARBY AND THE NEW 12Z ENS DOES SHOW A STRONG
CLUSTERING OF SFC LOWS IN THE IL/IN AREA AT 06Z THURS SO THIS
CERTAINLY DOES BEAR WATCHING-- ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
ICING TO OCCUR AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING OVER THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 720 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ONGOING AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KBTL WHERE
INTERMITTENT MVFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM STRATUS.
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS AFTER 10Z LIGHT SNOW MOVES IN WITH
CIGS FALLING TO MVFR AND THEN IFR BETWEEN 12Z TO 15Z SUNDAY
MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL FALL TO 1-4 MILES AT ALL SITES. BRIEF
PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. THERE IS A LOW (ABOUT 10
PERCENT) CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN TOWARDS THE TAIL
END OF THE EVENT, AROUND 18Z MAINLY AT AZO AND BTL. WILL CONTINUE
TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MEADE
AVIATION...CERU
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