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FXUS63 KGRR 020553
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1253 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BRIEF BURST OF SNOW EARLY SUNDAY
- LIGHT SNOW NORTH MONDAY
- MESSY MIDWEEK WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2025
- BRIEF BURST OF SNOW EARLY SUNDAY
STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGS A QUICK-HITTING BURST OF SNOW EARLY
SUNDAY. DRY AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE
MID TEENS FENDS OFF THE SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE THE
MAIN 4 TO 6 HOUR DURATION OF SNOW OCCURS BETWEEN ROUGHLY 09Z AND
15Z SUNDAY. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY SLICKEN THE ROADS SUNDAY MORNING
FOR A TIME BEFORE TEMPS RECOVER ABOVE FREEZING IN THE AFTERNOON.
1 TO 2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED NORTH OF A LINE FROM
HOLLAND TO LANSING WITH LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED SOUTH OF
THERE. THERE IS A RISK OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE
AFTER THE BURST OF SNOW COMES THROUGH DUE TO A WARM WEDGE ALOFT
SNEAKING IN BUT PROBABLY MORE SO DUE TO THE LOSS OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND AN UNSATURATED DGZ. HOWEVER BY THAT TIME THE BULK OF
THE "BETTER" QPF SHOULD HAVE BAILED OFF TO THE EAST AND LITTLE IF
ANY ICE ACCRETION IS EXPECTED.
- LIGHT SNOW NORTH MONDAY
FAST/ZONAL 120-150 KT JET STRETCHING ACROSS THE NRN U.S. SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AND FGEN FORCING PROMOTES A RELATIVELY NARROW
BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY/MODEL DISCREPANCY
REGARDING WHERE THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW SETS
UP, BUT CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 1-2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS NEAR AND
NORTH OF THE U.S. 10 CORRIDOR. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR A LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THERE, DOWN TO ABOUT THE I-96
CORRIDOR.
THERE IS DECENT COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT
THIS SHOULD BE FAIRLY INCONSEQUENTIAL GIVEN THE LARGE SFC HIGH
BUILDING IN.
- MESSY MIDWEEK WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MODELS REGARDING THE
POTENTIALLY MESSY SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE SPREAD
IS EVIDENT IN BOTH TEMPS AND QPF, LEADING TO P-TYPE QUESTIONS
SHOULD WE SEE A DECENT SYSTEM COME THROUGH. THERE WILL BE DECENT
BAROCLINICITY NEARBY AND THE NEW 12Z ENS DOES SHOW A STRONG
CLUSTERING OF SFC LOWS IN THE IL/IN AREA AT 06Z THURS SO THIS
CERTAINLY DOES BEAR WATCHING-- ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
ICING TO OCCUR AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING OVER THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2025
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BETWEEN 8-15Z FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR VALUES INITIALLY WITH VISIBILITIES
OF 1 TO 5 SM. SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 0.25 INCH PER HOUR ARE LIKELY
WITH SOME BRIEF BURSTS UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE. OVERALL MKG
TO GRR TO LAN AND NORTH ARE EXPECTED TO GET AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW
THIS MORNING WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH AND LOWER TO THE
SOUTH.
AROUND 15-17Z IFR CEILINGS MOVE IN WITH VISIBILITIES LIKELY
REMAINING IN THE 3 TO 5 SM RANGE. THERE IS ALSO A 30% CHANCE FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. IF FREEZING
DRIZZLE DEVELOPS A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE IS EXPECTED BEFORE
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON.
IFR WITH AREAS OF LIFR CEILINGS TOWARD AZO AND BTL WILL THEN
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING.
GRR AIRPORT DSS UPDATE
CHANCES FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE HAVE INCREASE TO 30% AFTER 11AM AND
LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE
FREEZING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MEADE
AVIATION...RAH
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