505
FXUS63 KGRR 021625
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1125 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING
- LIGHT SNOW NORTH MONDAY
- WINTRY MIX WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1125 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2025
THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW HAS EXITED TO THE EAST AND NO FURTHER
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER STILL CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
WITH SOME WEAK OMEGA SHOWN IN THE LOW CLOUD LAYER. REMAINING
CLOUDY WITH TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING LATER TODAY; POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION BEING THE CLARE/HARRISON AREA WHERE HIGHS NEAR 30 ARE
EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2025
- LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING
LOCAL AND REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
FROM FRANKFORT SOUTHWEST TO NEAR JOLIET, IL SLOWLY MOVING EAST.
THERE'S A BAND OF 25-30+ DBZ INDICATIVE OF QUARTER TO HALF MILE
VISIBILITIES IN MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY, HEAVY SNOW. THIS BAND IS
AHEAD OF AN UPPER SHORT WAVE AND FALLING IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION WING OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
CWA THIS MORNING DUMPING A QUICK INCH OR TWO MAINLY FROM I-96
NORTHWARD AND AROUND A HALF INCH SOUTH OF THERE. ROADS MAY BECOME
SLICK THIS MORNING FROM THE SNOW. HOWEVER, AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON, IMPACTS FROM THE SNOW WILL
DIMINISH.
- LIGHT SNOW NORTH MONDAY
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE SOUTHERN CANADA LOW WILL DROP
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND ACT AS A RUNWAY FOR A FAST
MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO RACE ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY. THIS
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE FOUND NEAR THE US-10 CORRIDOR AND A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF US-10 TO MIXED
RAIN SNOW SOUTH OF THERE TO AROUND M-46 AND GENERALLY RAIN SOUTH
OF M-46. AROUND A HALF INCH OF SNOW SEEMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE US-10
CORRIDOR.
- WINTRY MIX WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
WE'RE STILL WATCHING THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID WEEK SYSTEM THAT
COULD BRING SOME MODERATE IMPACTS TO THE REGION IN THE FORM OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW.
THIS IS AN INTERESTING SETUP WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE MONDAY
WAVE THAT SCOOTS BY WILL DRAG COLDER AIR SOUTH BEHIND IT WHICH
WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS
TRACKS TOWARD LOWER MI. IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT THE GFS IS FARTHER
SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF AND SO WOULD DEVELOP MORE SNOW THAN FREEZING
RAIN. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN LOW TRACKS AND ARE FARTHER NORTH AND
BRING MORE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN INTO THE CWA. THE ECMWF ALSO
DEVELOPS A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF MUCAPE OVER NORTHERN INDIANA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND SO WE COULD POTENTIALLY SEE SOME
THUNDER NOT TOO FAR AWAY.
GIVEN EXPECTED SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA AND COLDER
FARTHER NORTH, FREEZING RAIN LOOKS LIKE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY AND
AT LEAST MINOR IMPACTS LOOK PLAUSIBLE. CURRENT ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES
OF AT LEAST 0.05 INCHES OF FREEZING RAIN ARE IN THE 30-50 PERCENT
RANGE FROM KALAMAZOO-LANSING AND SOUTHWARD. WE'LL BE ABLE TO FINE
TUNE DETAILS AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 656 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2025
LIGHT SNOW IS MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING DROPPING VISIBILITIES TO
3/4 SM AND CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FEET. 1 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL
RATES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH THIS ROUND OF SNOW. SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO EXIT THE AREA BY LATE MORNING.
AROUND 15-17Z IFR CEILINGS MOVE IN WITH VISIBILITIES LIKELY
REMAINING IN THE 3 TO 5 SM RANGE. THERE IS ALSO A 30% CHANCE FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. IF FREEZING
DRIZZLE DEVELOPS A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE IS EXPECTED BEFORE
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON.
IFR WITH AREAS OF LIFR CEILINGS TOWARD AZO AND BTL WILL THEN
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ847>849.
UPDATE...MEADE
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...RAH
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