689
FXUS63 KGRR 031137
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
637 AM EST MON FEB 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG THIS MORNING, LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING RAIN NORTH
- FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
- LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE SATURDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST MON FEB 3 2025
- DENSE FOG THIS MORNING, LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING RAIN NORTH
SO FAR, THE DENSE FOG HASN'T DEVELOPED. HOWEVER, LATEST CONSSHORT
GUIDANCE TANKS VSBYS RIGHT AROUND 12Z FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AND
FOR THAT REASON, WE'LL CONTINUE WITH THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
FARTHER NORTH, LOCAL RADAR SHOWS LIGHT PRECIPITATION TRYING TO
FALL. LITTLE IF ANYTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND YET, BUT RADAR
SHOWS PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM OVER WISCONSIN MOVING EAST AND WILL
MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGD
TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ENTRENCHED OVER THE
NORTHERN CWA. GIVEN THAT TRACK, MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL NORTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER, A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE NORTH OF US-10 IN ADDITION TO THE FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL. IN FACT, HREF POINTS TOWARD A 40-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SEEING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE ALL OF
THE PRECIPITATION ENDS THIS AFTERNOON.
- FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY, BREEZY THURSDAY
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID WEEK SYSTEM.
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND SHOW A
PHASING OF A NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE
UPPER MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT OF THIS PHASING WILL BE TO
DRAW SOME WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE SYSTEM. AS SUCH, THE GFS
IS PRODUCING SOME FREEZING RAIN ALONG/SOUTH OF I-96 WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT; THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST
BULLISH ON THE FREEZING THREAT AND SHOWS SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
TO THE PRECIPITATION. ENSEMBLES POINT TOWARD A 50-60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE I-94
CORRIDOR WITH A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE NEAR I-96. OBVIOUSLY, HIGHER
PROBABILITIES EXIST WITH LOWER ICE ACCUMULATIONS.
WE COULD SEE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CERTAINLY OVERNIGHT WITH THAT POTENTIAL LINGERING INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER, SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE PROGD TO WARM ABOVE
FREEZING THURSDAY MORNING SOUTH OF I-96 AS THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS.
ECMWF ENSEMBLES SHOW BREEZY CONDITIONS THURSDAY BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW; ENSEMBLE MEAN WIND GUSTS 40-45 MPH WHICH MAY
NECESSITATE A WIND ADVISORY. ADDITIONALLY, ANY ICE THAT REMAINS ON
TREE LIMBS OR POWER LINES COULD BECOME PROBLEMATIC WITH THE WIND.
- LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE SATURDAY
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW HEADS TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY BRINGING
THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW WITH IT. THIS ISN'T A PARTICULARLY
STRONG LOW, HOWEVER, MODELS DO SHOW THE LOW STRENGTHENING A BIT
AS IT MOVES PAST THE STATE. MOST OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES SHOW SNOW
ACCUMULATION WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AROUND 2 INCHES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 637 AM EST MON FEB 3 2025
VISIBILITIES ARE LOWERING AGAIN WITH MORE AREAS NOW AT 1/4 SM. FOG
IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE VISIBILITIES
SLIGHTLY IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE
AREA. WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IMPROVING
AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST THIS EVENING.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ037>040-043>046-
050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...RAH
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