271
FXUS63 KGRR 031747
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1247 PM EST MON FEB 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG THIS MORNING, LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING RAIN NORTH
- FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
- LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE SATURDAY
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1059 AM EST MON FEB 3 2025
CANCELLED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY A BIT EARLY AS THE 1/4 MILE OR
LESS VISIBILITIES ARE NOT VERY WIDESPREAD AND ARE ONLY SHOWING UP
AT A FEW OB SITES. PRECIP STILL STRUGGLING TO OVERCOME THE DRY
AIR AND IS STILL MOSTLY ALOFT AS EVIDENT BY THE DONUT APPEARANCE
ON THE RADAR. LATEST HRRR FCST SOUNDINGS POINTING TOWARD MAINLY
SNOW FOR P-TYPE NEAR AND NORTH OF U.S. 10 CORRIDOR WHERE PRECIP
HAS HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF REACHING THE GROUND AND THERE COULD BE UP
TO 1" ACCUMS BEFORE IT ENDS LATER IN THE DAY. RAIN WOULD BE THE
MORE LIKELY P-TYPE FARTHER SOUTH DOWN TO I-96 BUT IT IS
QUESTIONABLE WHETHER OR NOT THE COLUMN SATURATES ENOUGH TO REACH
TO THE GROUND. SPRINKLES MAY BE THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO BETWEEN
I-96 AND U.S. 10.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST MON FEB 3 2025
- DENSE FOG THIS MORNING, LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING RAIN NORTH
SO FAR, THE DENSE FOG HASN'T DEVELOPED. HOWEVER, LATEST CONSSHORT
GUIDANCE TANKS VSBYS RIGHT AROUND 12Z FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AND
FOR THAT REASON, WE'LL CONTINUE WITH THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
FARTHER NORTH, LOCAL RADAR SHOWS LIGHT PRECIPITATION TRYING TO
FALL. LITTLE IF ANYTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND YET, BUT RADAR
SHOWS PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM OVER WISCONSIN MOVING EAST AND WILL
MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGD
TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ENTRENCHED OVER THE
NORTHERN CWA. GIVEN THAT TRACK, MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL NORTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER, A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE NORTH OF US-10 IN ADDITION TO THE FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL. IN FACT, HREF POINTS TOWARD A 40-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SEEING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE ALL OF
THE PRECIPITATION ENDS THIS AFTERNOON.
- FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY, BREEZY THURSDAY
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID WEEK SYSTEM.
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND SHOW A
PHASING OF A NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE
UPPER MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT OF THIS PHASING WILL BE TO
DRAW SOME WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE SYSTEM. AS SUCH, THE GFS
IS PRODUCING SOME FREEZING RAIN ALONG/SOUTH OF I-96 WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT; THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST
BULLISH ON THE FREEZING THREAT AND SHOWS SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
TO THE PRECIPITATION. ENSEMBLES POINT TOWARD A 50-60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE I-94
CORRIDOR WITH A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE NEAR I-96. OBVIOUSLY, HIGHER
PROBABILITIES EXIST WITH LOWER ICE ACCUMULATIONS.
WE COULD SEE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CERTAINLY OVERNIGHT WITH THAT POTENTIAL LINGERING INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER, SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE PROGD TO WARM ABOVE
FREEZING THURSDAY MORNING SOUTH OF I-96 AS THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS.
ECMWF ENSEMBLES SHOW BREEZY CONDITIONS THURSDAY BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW; ENSEMBLE MEAN WIND GUSTS 40-45 MPH WHICH MAY
NECESSITATE A WIND ADVISORY. ADDITIONALLY, ANY ICE THAT REMAINS ON
TREE LIMBS OR POWER LINES COULD BECOME PROBLEMATIC WITH THE WIND.
- LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE SATURDAY
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW HEADS TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY BRINGING
THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW WITH IT. THIS ISN'T A PARTICULARLY
STRONG LOW, HOWEVER, MODELS DO SHOW THE LOW STRENGTHENING A BIT
AS IT MOVES PAST THE STATE. MOST OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES SHOW SNOW
ACCUMULATION WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AROUND 2 INCHES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST MON FEB 3 2025
FOR JXN/AZO/BTL A BRIEF SURGE OF DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO A VFR
CIGS WITH A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR VISBYS AS THE FOG BECOMES PATCHY.
FURTHER NORTH, LAN, GRR, AND MKG ARE LIFR AND WILL REMAIN LIFR
THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE A FRONT SCOURS OUT THE MOISTURE. THE
SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING LIFR CONDITIONS BACK
TO JXN/AZO/BTL FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING. MVFR
STRATUS SETS UP BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO IF ENOUGH LOW-
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE CAN SCATTER OUT MVFR CIGS FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS EXISTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW DRIVING OUR POOR CONDITIONS
MOVES AWAY.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...MEADE
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...THOMAS
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