105
FXUS63 KGRR 041150
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
650 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LESS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
- WINDY THURSDAY
- MIX OF PRECIPITATION LIKELY SATURDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2025
- LESS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OVERALL SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THE AXIS OF RELATIVELY HEAVIEST FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE AXIS OF RELATIVELY HEAVIEST FZRA
WILL OCCUR NEAR TO MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MI/IN BORDER IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION
WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE IN THE WAY OF FORCING/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
AND LIFT.
BASED ON SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS WE HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED
FORECAST FZRA AMOUNTS TO AROUND A TENTH TO FIFTEEN HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH NEAR TO SOUTH OF I-94 AND LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH
NORTH OF I-94. THESE AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE TWEAKED DOWN LOWER IF
THE MODEL TRENDS OF THE PAST 24-48 HRS CONTINUE.
- WINDY THURSDAY
IT WILL BECOME QUITE WINDY THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE STRENGTHENING SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO AND HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STRENGTHENS. LATEST 00Z
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST PEAK WIND GUSTS COULD REACH AROUND 40 MPH BUT
AS SUCH STAYING BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
- MIX OF PRECIPITATION LIKELY SATURDAY
AN OVERALL CONSENSUS BLEND OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ENE ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PCPN TO
OUR AREA SATURDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO GET INTO TOO MANY SPECIFICS
BUT AT THIS TIME WE EXPECT A MOSTLY SNOW EVEN NORTH OF I-96 WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW/SLEET/FZRA NEAR TO SOUTH OF I-96. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE IN A FAST ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BY
THEN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 651 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2025
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE USHERING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. CEILINGS AT 12Z RANGE
FROM 2500 TO 3500 FEET OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. ALL TAF SITES
WILL SEE A MIX OF BOTH VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. FOR THE
AFTERNOON WE EXPECT CEILINGS TO LIFT SLIGHTLY TO VFR IN MOST AREAS
TO AROUND 3500 FEET. TONIGHT WE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS, SUBSIDING A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.
DISCUSSION...LAURENS
AVIATION...DUKE
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