868
FXUS63 KGRR 050805
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
305 AM EST WED FEB 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT WINTRY MIX LIKELY LATE TONIGHT
- WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY
- IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER SATURDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST WED FEB 5 2025
- LIGHT WINTRY MIX LIKELY LATE TONIGHT
A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTERY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT RELATIVELY STEADIER
FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR FCST AREA. A
CONSENSUS BLEND OF LATEST DATA AND 00Z HREF FRAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT ONLY AROUND FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF FZRA OR LESS WILL
FALL ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THEREFORE WE WILL HOIST A WINTER WX
ADV FOR THE I-94 COUNTIES FROM 03Z THUR - 14Z THUR TO COVER THE
THUR AM COMMUTE ACROSS THAT AREA. PCPN NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR
WILL BE LIGHTER AND NOT IMPACTFUL ENOUGH TO WARRANT A HEADLINE.
- WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY
THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
RESULT IN STRONG WINDS WHICH COULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
THURSDAY. THE RELATIVELY BEST CHC FOR GUSTS NEAR OR EXCEEDING 45
MPH WILL BE ACROSS OUR LAKESHORE COUNTIES WHERE GUSTS COULD
EASILY REACH 50 MPH. CONDITIONS MAY REACH ADV CRITERIA INLAND AS
WELL. A WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE WILL LIKELY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED
FOR THIS WIND EVENT.
- IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER SATURDAY
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ENE FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
BRINGING AN IMPACTFUL MIX OF PCPN. THE MOST LIKELY LOW TRACK AND
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT WILL OCCUR NEAR
TO NORTH OF I-96 WITH A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN SLEET AND SNOW SOUTH
OF I-96. DEEPER MOISTURE AND SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME BANDED HEAVIER SNOWFALL.
A SWATH OF SIX INCHES OR MORE OF SNOWFALL SEEMS QUITE POSSIBLE IF
NOT PROBABLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FCST AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 132 AM EST WED FEB 5 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT
ALLOWING A LOW TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT, THROUGH TODAY WITH
CONDITIONS FINALLY DETERIORATING THIS EVENING AFTER 02Z. LOWER
CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AFTER 00Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY 06Z
ON THURSDAY WITH FREEZING RAIN SPREADING IN BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR MIZ071>074.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LAURENS
AVIATION...DUKE
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