062
FXUS63 KGRR 051145
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
645 AM EST WED FEB 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT WINTRY MIX LIKELY LATE TONIGHT
- WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY
- IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER SATURDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST WED FEB 5 2025
- LIGHT WINTRY MIX LIKELY LATE TONIGHT
A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT RELATIVELY STEADIER
FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR FCST AREA. A
CONSENSUS BLEND OF LATEST DATA AND 00Z HREF FRAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT ONLY AROUND FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF FZRA OR LESS WILL
FALL ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THEREFORE WE WILL HOIST A WINTER WX
ADV FOR THE I-94 COUNTIES FROM 03Z THUR - 14Z THUR TO COVER THE
THUR AM COMMUTE ACROSS THAT AREA. PCPN NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR
WILL BE LIGHTER AND NOT IMPACTFUL ENOUGH TO WARRANT A HEADLINE.
- WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY
THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
RESULT IN STRONG WINDS WHICH COULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
THURSDAY. THE RELATIVELY BEST CHC FOR GUSTS NEAR OR EXCEEDING 45
MPH WILL BE ACROSS OUR LAKESHORE COUNTIES WHERE GUSTS COULD
EASILY REACH 50 MPH. CONDITIONS MAY REACH ADV CRITERIA INLAND AS
WELL. A WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE WILL LIKELY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED
FOR THIS WIND EVENT.
- IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER SATURDAY
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ENE FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
BRINGING AN IMPACTFUL MIX OF PCPN. THE MOST LIKELY LOW TRACK AND
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT WILL OCCUR NEAR
TO NORTH OF I-96 WITH A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN SLEET AND SNOW SOUTH
OF I-96. DEEPER MOISTURE AND SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME BANDED HEAVIER SNOWFALL.
A SWATH OF SIX INCHES OR MORE OF SNOWFALL SEEMS QUITE POSSIBLE IF
NOT PROBABLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FCST AREA.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 646 AM EST WED FEB 5 2025
VFR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY LOWER
INTO A MID DECK WITH BASES LOWERING INTO THE 7,000 AND 12,000
FEET RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AND
THICKEN THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CEILINGS OVERSPREADING THE AREA
BETWEEN 04Z AND 07Z TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
AS CEILINGS LOWER FURTHER. A MIX OF SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT (AFTER 03Z). SNOW WILL BE MORE PREVALENT AT
THE I-96 TAF SITES WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MORE DOMINANT AT
THE I-94 TAF SITES.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR MIZ071>074.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LAURENS
AVIATION...DUKE
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