095
FXUS63 KGRR 281951
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
351 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM FRONT BRINGS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH SAT NIGHT
- SEVERE THREAT ON SUNDAY AS LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
- ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MID NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
- WARM FRONT BRINGS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH SAT NIGHT
A WARM FRONT WILL SURGE NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING AND BE SITUATED NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THE FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE LEVELS ARE ENOUGH FOR BOTH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, THE NEGATIVE
FACTOR IS THAT THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A FORCING MECHANISM IN THE MID
TO UPPER LEVELS. WITH A LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGING ON THE WARM FRONT
THOUGH WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS, SO WE HAVE
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-96
TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE PLAINS SYSTEM MOVES OUR DIRECTION.
- SEVERE THREAT ON SUNDAY AS LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
A SEVERE THREAT EXISTS ON SUNDAY AS THE PLAINS TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. AT THIS POINT, SPC HAS MUCH OF OUR AREA
IN A SLIGHT RISK (2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER. MOISTURE WILL BE
IN PLACE WITH 60F DEW POINTS AT THE SURFACE AND +10C DEW POINTS
AT 850MB. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING IN WITH A WARM FRONT
SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA. THE CAPE / SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS QUITE
FAVORABLE GIVEN THE WARM FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS IN THE SOUTHEAST
CWA TOWARDS JXN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVE MUCAPE VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPROACHING 60 KNOTS.
ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS WILL BE IN PLAY, NAMELY HEAVY RAIN,
LARGE HAIL, STRONG WINDS AND TORNADOES. AS THE EVENT MOVES MORE
INTO THE CAM / HREF WINDOW THE PICTURE WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR.
THAT SAID, IF WE DO NOT HAVE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IN THE
MORNING AND THE AIR MASS CAN DESTABILIZE SIGNIFICANTLY INTO THE
AFTERNOON OUR CONCERNS ARE ELEVATED.
- ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MID NEXT WEEK
ANOTHER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT 850MB DEW POINTS SURGE TO +8 TO
+10 C ONCE AGAIN. THROUGH THE 7 DAY FORECAST 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
LOOKS QUITE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE. WE WILL SEE RISES ON AREA RIVERS
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
THE TAF PERIOD BEGINS WITH IFR CIGS CONTINUING AT THE EASTERN
SITES OF LAN AND JXN. SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS CLEARING FROM THE
WEST SO THESE CIGS WILL LIFT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BEHIND THE
FRONT WINDS WILL MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SW WINDS AFTER
19Z. THE NEXT AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LLWS THIS EVENING. A LOW
LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION AROUND SUNSET. WITH SURFACE
WINDS DROP, THE WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN STRONG WITH SW WINDS GOING
TO 50KTS BY 2Z FRIDAY AND INCREASING TO 60KTS AT 2KFT AFTER 5Z.
THE LLWS WILL DROP DOWN TO 55KTS AROUND 12Z AND CONTINUE UNTIL
AROUND 14Z. TAF SITES WILL THEN MIX DOWN THE WINDS WITH WIND GUSTS
OF 35KTS POSSIBLE AFTER 14Z. MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
SO HAVE PUT VCSH IN APPROPRIATE TAF SITES.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
DISCUSSION...DUKE
AVIATION...CERU
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