355
FXUS63 KGRR 290602
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
202 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM FRONT BRINGS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH SAT NIGHT
- SEVERE THREAT ON SUNDAY AS LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
- ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MID NEXT WEEK
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 939 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WARM AND MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE
NORTHWARD. THE WARM FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON STRETCHES FROM LUDINGTON SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
LANSING AREA. THE FRONT WILL GENERALLY STALL OVERNIGHT AT THIS
POSITION. THE EVENING HOURS HAVE BEEN DRY SO FAR, BUT SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAVE FIRED ON THE WISCONSIN SIDE OF THE LAKE AND WILL
GENERALLY DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND MAY APPROACH
OUR FAR NORTHERN AREAS ALONG US-10 BY MIDNIGHT, THOUGH NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
- WARM FRONT BRINGS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH SAT NIGHT
A WARM FRONT WILL SURGE NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING AND BE SITUATED NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THE FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE LEVELS ARE ENOUGH FOR BOTH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, THE NEGATIVE
FACTOR IS THAT THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A FORCING MECHANISM IN THE MID
TO UPPER LEVELS. WITH A LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGING ON THE WARM FRONT
THOUGH WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS, SO WE HAVE
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-96
TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE PLAINS SYSTEM MOVES OUR DIRECTION.
- SEVERE THREAT ON SUNDAY AS LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
A SEVERE THREAT EXISTS ON SUNDAY AS THE PLAINS TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. AT THIS POINT, SPC HAS MUCH OF OUR AREA
IN A SLIGHT RISK (2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER. MOISTURE WILL BE
IN PLACE WITH 60F DEW POINTS AT THE SURFACE AND +10C DEW POINTS
AT 850MB. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING IN WITH A WARM FRONT
SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA. THE CAPE / SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS QUITE
FAVORABLE GIVEN THE WARM FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS IN THE SOUTHEAST
CWA TOWARDS JXN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVE MUCAPE VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPROACHING 60 KNOTS.
ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS WILL BE IN PLAY, NAMELY HEAVY RAIN,
LARGE HAIL, STRONG WINDS AND TORNADOES. AS THE EVENT MOVES MORE
INTO THE CAM / HREF WINDOW THE PICTURE WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR.
THAT SAID, IF WE DO NOT HAVE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IN THE
MORNING AND THE AIR MASS CAN DESTABILIZE SIGNIFICANTLY INTO THE
AFTERNOON OUR CONCERNS ARE ELEVATED.
- ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MID NEXT WEEK
ANOTHER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT 850MB DEW POINTS SURGE TO +8 TO
+10 C ONCE AGAIN. THROUGH THE 7 DAY FORECAST 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
LOOKS QUITE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE. WE WILL SEE RISES ON AREA RIVERS
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
THE MAIN STORY EARLY THIS MORNING IS THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WITH THE GRR RADAR VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING 50 KTS AT 2000
FT. THOSE STRONGER WINDS BRIEFLY REACHED THE SFC AT GRR AROUND
MIDNIGHT BUT THE SFC WINDS HAVE RECENTLY RELAXED A BIT FROM A
COUPLE HOURS AGO. LLWS PERSISTING THROUGH ABOUT 12-14Z SAT BEFORE
FINALLY SUBSIDING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
OTHERWISE WE HAVE VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY; GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO MVFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THIS OCCURS AS THE WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH SAGS BACK
SOUTHWARD, AND WHILE IT SHOULD MAKE IT DOWN TO I-96 IT IS
DOUBTFUL THAT THE FRONT (AND ASSOCIATED LOWER MVFR CIGS) MAKES IT
AS FAR SOUTH AS I-94 TODAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE RE-
DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT THUNDER
IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ844>849.
UPDATE...AMD
DISCUSSION...DUKE
AVIATION...MEADE
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