487
FXUS63 KGRR 310550
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
150 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
- MID NEXT WEEK SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL FOR BOTH WINTER AND SEVERE
WEATHER
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1026 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
THE MAIN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING IS TO FRESHEN UP
EVERYTHING BY GETTING RID OF ALL OF THE CONVECTION AND SEVERE
WEATHER MENTION.
EXCEPT FOR A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS SE OF GRAND RAPIDS AT 1020 PM,
THE REST OF THE AREA IS IN A RELATIVE LULL IN THE WAKE OF THE
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER. WE ARE EXPECTING SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO
MOVE BACK IN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE MAIN WAVE MOVES OVER
THE AREA. THE FOCUS OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE WAY THE WAVE IS SWINGING
THROUGH.
IT IS LIKELY THAT AS THE SHOWERS ARE ABOUT READY TO WIND DOWN
TOWARD DAYBREAK, THAT THEY WILL CHANGE TO A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW
BEFORE ENDING. THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY IMPACTS WITH THE GROUND
WARM FROM THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
- SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THE WARM FRONT HAS SURGED NORTH OF I-96 THIS AFTERNOON AND NOW
STRETCHES FROM JUST NORTH OF MUSKEGON ACROSS NORTHERN KENT COUNTY
TO JUST NORTH OF ST. JOHNS. THE OPEN WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO
SURGE THROUGH THE CWA WITH CLEARING NOW MOVING UP INTO THE I-96
CORRIDOR. MUCAPE VALUES HAVE SURGED TO 2,000 J/KG INTO THE I-94
CORRIDOR NOW. SUFFICE IT TO SAY THE INSTABILITY HAS ARRIVED. THE
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PLOWING NORTHEAST FROM MO/IL WHICH IS
PROVIDING THE LIFT. A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE OVER IL. THESE STORMS ARE RACING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS OUR AREA AT THIS TIME AND ARE EXPECTED TO SWEEP
FROM OUR SOUTHWEST LAKE MICHIGAN MARINE ZONES OVER MID LAKE TO
EAST OF U.S. 127 BETWEEN 400PM AND 800PM.
THE MAIN HAZARD CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN
THE CONVECTION HAS ALREADY GONE LINEAR UPSTREAM. THE LINEAR MODE
IS WHAT WAS EXPECTED. HAIL REMAINS A THREAT, BUT WE FEEL WIND
CONTINUES TO BE THE HIGHEST THREAT. TORNADOES REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY AS WELL, BUT LIKELY FROM TWO MODES. ONE BEING EMBEDDED
QLCS TYPE TORNADOES AND THE OTHER BEING STORMS INTERACTING WITH
THE WARM FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY IS JUST NORTH OF I-96. SUPERCELLS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, BUT WITH A DOMINANT LINEAR MODE
ALREADY OCCURRING THIS MODE IS LESS LIKELY. BOTTOM LINE, WE ARE
EXPECTING A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA OVER
THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 4-5 HOURS WITH DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY BEING
THE MAIN THREAT.
STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT 50-60 MPH.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED, BUT IT WILL NOT LAST LONG GIVEN
THOSE SPEEDS.
SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
AND IT WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO SOME SNOW IN SPOTS BEFORE
ENDING. TEMPERATURES PLUNGE INTO THE 30S OVER THE ENTIRE AT 12Z.
- MID NEXT WEEK SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL FOR BOTH WINTER AND SEVERE
WEATHER
OUR FORECAST FOCUS GOING FORWARD WILL BE ON THE MID NEXT WEEK
SYSTEM. THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME IN AS A WINTRY MIX TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH BOTH SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN
LOOKING LIKELY. THE DAY 4 SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH IN THE SPC
FORECAST FOR THAT RANGE IN TIME AND THAT IS APPROPRIATE GIVEN A
STRONG SPRING TIME LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHICH AGAIN
PULLS 60F DEW POINTS NORTH INTO OUR AREA AT THE SURFACE. MORE ON
THIS SYSTEM AS WE GO FORWARD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
IFR TO MVFR CIGS AND AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE/MIST ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, AND THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
AREAS OF LIFR CIGS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WEST AND NORTH OF GRR.
THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY HAS CIGS OF AROUND 1500 FT LIFTING TO
AROUND 2500 FT AFTER 18Z, WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOLLOWING FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AFTER 00Z AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT.
WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS OVERNIGHT BECOMING NORTHWEST FOR MONDAY,
THEN RELAXING BELOW 10 KTS MONDAY NIGHT WHILE TURNING MORE
NORTHERLY.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
UPDATE...NJJ
DISCUSSION...DUKE
AVIATION...MEADE
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