051
FXUS63 KGRR 030130
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
930 PM EDT WED APR 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE WEATHER STILL POSSIBLE NEAR I-94
- RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT SATURDAY
- COLD SHOT WITH SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 915 PM EDT WED APR 2 2025
KGRR/RGNL RADAR TRENDS AS OF 0115Z SHOW STRONG CONVECTION OVER OUR
FAR EAST TO SE FCST AREA. THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO RACE TO
THE ENE AND WE EXPECT THAT THE THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE WX ACROSS
THAT AREA WILL COME TO AN END BY AROUND 02Z LATE THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED STORM WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT. OUR GOING FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING LOOKS
GOOD AND WE WILL JUST MAKE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS MAINLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR TIMING OF THE CONVECTION OUT OF OUR AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED APR 2 2025
- SEVERE WEATHER STILL POSSIBLE NEAR I-94
LACK OF INSTABILITY HAS PRECLUDED ANY SEVERE WEATHER SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE GRAVITY WAVE WIND THREAT HAS ALSO BEEN
UNDERWHELMING SO FAR WITH A FEW MESONET SITES SEEING WIND
DIRECTION CHANGES AND GUSTS 30 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.
THERE IS STILL THE CHANCE OF A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLE
LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WITH A TORNADO THREAT CLOSER TO THE SFC
WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN, PERSISTING LONGEST
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS EVENING. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED, BUT AT THIS POINT THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS LOW.
- RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND
A LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH BY FRIDAY WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THE PRECIP SHIELD REACHING THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH A MIX OF SNOW POSSIBLE IF THE PRECIP LINGERS INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
- COLD SHOT WITH SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK
UPPER TROUGHING DEEPENS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CLIPPER LOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE AIR MASS APPEARS COLD ENOUGH
TO ALLOW A COATING OF SPRING SNOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
WITH ACCUMS POSSIBLE FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF LOWER MICHIGAN.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT WED APR 2 2025
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT MANY OF OUR TERMINALS
NEAR TO SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF KGRR THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID
EVENING HOURS BRINGING REDUCTIONS TO IFR AT TIMES AND POTENTIAL
FOR BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS. IN ADDITION A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE SIGNIFICANT LLWS THROUGH THE EVENING AND
FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY END BETWEEN 02Z AND
03Z THURSDAY AND CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED APR 2 2025
NO CHANGES TO THE GALE WARNING, WHICH EXPIRES AT 11 PM. A SCA HAS
BEEN ISSUED TO BEGIN AT 11 PM AND RUN THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GO ONSHORE TONIGHT SO WAVES WILL BUILD CLOSER TO
SHORE.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 2 2025
IN GENERAL, 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN SO FAR TODAY ACROSS THE
GRAND AND KALAMAZOO BASINS, WITH ANOTHER 0.5 TO 1.0 LIKELY BEFORE
THE RAIN AND STORMS MOVE OUT LATER THIS EVENING. A FEW LOCALIZED
TOTALS OVER 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. WE'VE SEEN SOME MINOR GENERAL
FLOODING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES INCLUDING KALAMAZOO. THESE
AREAL FLOODING RISKS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY ONCE THE ROUNDS OF STORMS
MOVE OUT.
WHILE THE MUSKEGON RIVER BASIN DID GET LESS RAIN, WATER LEVELS WERE
ALREADY STARTING OUT HIGHER THERE DUE TO PREVIOUS STORMS, SO SOME
MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED OVER THE COMING DAYS IN NEWAYGO AND ALSO
IN BRIDGETON. ACROSS THE GRAND RIVER, IT LOOKS LIKE MOST PLACES WILL
PROBABLY SEE SIGNIFICANT RISES BUT AVOID FLOODING. EXCEPTIONS TO
THIS WILL PROBABLY BE SOME OF THE FLOODING "TROUBLE SPOTS" INCLUDING
COMSTOCK PARK, AROUND LANSING ON THE RED CEDAR RIVER AS WELL AS
SYCAMORE CREEK, AND POTENTIALLY DOWN ALONG THE PORTAGE RIVER NEAR
VICKSBURG.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
UPDATE...LAURENS
DISCUSSION...OSTUNO
AVIATION...LAURENS
MARINE...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...AMD
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