638
FXUS63 KGRR 230127
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
927 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN MUCH OF THIS WEEK
- DRY WEEKEND THEN CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE NEXT 7 DAYS
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 925 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
ONE BATCH OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED ACROSS THE CWA PRODUCING AROUND A
TRACE AS THEY MOVED EAST.
A WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA ATTM WILL DRIFT NORTH TONIGHT
AND INTERACT WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE. THIS IS PRODUCING LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN IL AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
LATER TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH WITH IT AS IT MOVES EAST BUT
WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS THAT ARE CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
- SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN MUCH OF THIS WEEK
WE HAVE SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT TIMES ALMOST EACH
FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT IS LOCATED IN
THE CWA TONIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH THE
INTERACTION OF A LOW LEVEL JET NEARBY WILL PROVIDE THE CHANCE FOR
SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS. GIVEN THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE WE
HAVE HAVE RAIN SHOWERS AND NO THUNDER MENTIONED TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE ARE AROUND 30
DEGREES AT THIS POINT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WE HAVE A WASHING OUT COLD FRONT
THAT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN A REESTABLISHING WARM
FRONT. CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THESE PERIODS ARE ON THE ORDER OF
20-30 PCT.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WILL COME FROM A LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SLIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. WE HAVE
HIGH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION GIVEN AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE WAVE. 70-90 PCT CHANCES FOR
RAIN ARE IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- DRY WEEKEND THEN CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE PUSHED BY AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AN UPPER MIDWEST. THESE STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONGER
SIDE, BUT THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES AT THIS POINT GIVEN IT IS 7
DAYS OUT. AS IT STANDS NOW, TUESDAY COULD BE AN ACTIVE DAY WITH
STORMS.
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE NEXT 7 DAYS
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL THE NEXT 7 DAYS. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 60 AND WE WILL
PUSH INTO THE 70S FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE 3-4 DAYS. WARMEST DAYS
LOOK TO BE THURSDAY AND NEXT TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 757 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
CLOUD LAYERS / CEILINGS TONIGHT AND WED EXPECTED TO BE VFR. MAIN
CHALLENGE WILL BE PREDICTING TEMPORARY MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR
VISIBILITY WITH RAIN SHOWERS. THERE APPEAR TO BE A COUPLE TIME
FRAMES WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CREATE SHOWERS, MAINLY LATE
TONIGHT AND LATER WED MORNING INTO MID-LATE AFTERNOON. NARROW
WEST-EAST CORRIDORS OF RELATIVELY HIGHER INSTABILITY ARE SHOWING
UP IN SHORT TERM GUIDANCE THAT SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A
THUNDERSTORM, THOUGH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHERE ONE MIGHT
POP UP WILL HAVE TO BE HANDLED WITH PROB30S FOR NOW. SHORT-TERM
MODELS IS ALSO POINTING TOWARD FOG POTENTIAL NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
(INCLUDING MKG) FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK (12Z) WED. WITH A
FRONT WAVERING THROUGH THE AREA, WINDS WILL TEND TO VARY BETWEEN E
AND SW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
NO MARINE CONCERNS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A
FAIRLY LIGHT WIND REGIME. THE WIND IS UP ALOFT THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COUPLE OF LOW LEVEL
JETS, BUT GIVEN WARMER AIR IN PLACE WE DO NOT EXPECT THESE BRIEF
UPTICKS IN WIND TO RESULT IN A RESPONSE ON THE WATER SURFACE. IN
FACT, THE WAVEWATCH3 IS SHOWING WAVES OF 2 FEET OR LESS THE NEXT
48 HOURS.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...04
DISCUSSION...DUKE
AVIATION...CAS
MARINE...DUKE
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