389
FXUS63 KGRR 230547
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
147 AM EDT WED APR 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN MUCH OF THIS WEEK
- DRY WEEKEND THEN CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE NEXT 7 DAYS
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1051 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD ISOL'D THUNDER TO THE GRIDS. H8-H7 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT VECTORS ARE MAXED OUT OVER THE WEST CENTRAL CWA FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO, INCREASING LAPSE RATES RATES ARE MOVING OVER
THE CWA. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OUT OF THESE STORMS OTHER THAN SOME
LIGHTNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
- SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN MUCH OF THIS WEEK
WE HAVE SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT TIMES ALMOST EACH
FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT IS LOCATED IN
THE CWA TONIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH THE
INTERACTION OF A LOW LEVEL JET NEARBY WILL PROVIDE THE CHANCE FOR
SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS. GIVEN THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE WE
HAVE HAVE RAIN SHOWERS AND NO THUNDER MENTIONED TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE ARE AROUND 30
DEGREES AT THIS POINT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WE HAVE A WASHING OUT COLD FRONT
THAT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN A REESTABLISHING WARM
FRONT. CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THESE PERIODS ARE ON THE ORDER OF
20-30 PCT.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WILL COME FROM A LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SLIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. WE HAVE
HIGH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION GIVEN AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE WAVE. 70-90 PCT CHANCES FOR
RAIN ARE IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- DRY WEEKEND THEN CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE PUSHED BY AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AN UPPER MIDWEST. THESE STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONGER
SIDE, BUT THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES AT THIS POINT GIVEN IT IS 7
DAYS OUT. AS IT STANDS NOW, TUESDAY COULD BE AN ACTIVE DAY WITH
STORMS.
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE NEXT 7 DAYS
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL THE NEXT 7 DAYS. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 60 AND WE WILL
PUSH INTO THE 70S FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE 3-4 DAYS. WARMEST DAYS
LOOK TO BE THURSDAY AND NEXT TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT WED APR 23 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
MAINLY 18Z TO 00Z, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
LINGER LONGER TOWARD MKG AND NORTHWARD. COVERAGE MAY BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE TOWARD JXN. WITH THE HIT AND
MISS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ONLY INCLUDED THE POTENTIAL
WITH THE PROB30 GROUP. WITH ANY SHOWER/STORM THIS AFTERNOON LOWER
CEILINGS ALONG WITH MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
NO MARINE CONCERNS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A
FAIRLY LIGHT WIND REGIME. THE WIND IS UP ALOFT THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COUPLE OF LOW LEVEL
JETS, BUT GIVEN WARMER AIR IN PLACE WE DO NOT EXPECT THESE BRIEF
UPTICKS IN WIND TO RESULT IN A RESPONSE ON THE WATER SURFACE. IN
FACT, THE WAVEWATCH3 IS SHOWING WAVES OF 2 FEET OR LESS THE NEXT
48 HOURS.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...04
DISCUSSION...DUKE
AVIATION...RAH
MARINE...DUKE
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