164
FXUS63 KGRR 250550
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
150 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW
- DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- CHANCE OF STORMS TUESDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU APR 24 2025
- SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW
THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. TWO TROUGHS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA WHICH WILL BRING TWO DIFFERENT FRONTAL
PATTERN THROUGH THE REGION.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH GULF MOISTURE WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTH
AND THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW. THAT WILL CLIP THE SOUTH EASTERN
PORTION OF MICHIGAN. A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A
CONVERGENT GRADIENT ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHWESTER FLOW LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THAT, COUPLED WITH THE ABOVE
MENTIONED SYSTEM WILL INTERACT SHOULD ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST.
LATEST CAMS HAVE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION BETWEEN 4 PM TO 8 PM.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR OVER 1K J/KG OF CAPE THOUGH SHEAR IS
FAIRLY WEAK. SOME DRY MID LEVELS COULD HINDER STORM DEVELOPMENT.
THAT SAID, TEMPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE BELOW 70, THOUGH
IN THE SOUTHEAST THEY COULD GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WHICH
WITH THE MOIST AIR WILL GIVE THE BATTLE CREEK AREA, EAST A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS. CURRENTLY, NOT EXPECTING SEVERE AND SPC
ONLY HAS THE AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER.
- DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS THE STRONG FLOW MOVES EASTWARD A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION BRINGING DRY AIR AND WILL ALLOW FOR FAIR WEATHER THROUGH
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY BUT WILL BE RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL.
- CHANCE OF STORMS TUESDAY
MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES, A COLD FRONT SHOULD SWING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY.
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN, HOWEVER LATEST MODELS SHOW A DEEPENING TROUGH
WITH WARM, MOIST ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF IT. TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY SHOULD GET INTO THE 70S TO LO 80S. WITH THOSE WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND DEWPOINTS POTENTIALLY INTO THE 60S,
THEN THERE WILL BE GOOD WARM BUOYANT AIR AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION.
FRONT COLD BE FURTHER EAST, WHICH WOULD PULL CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST. LATEST GEFS, EXPERIMENTAL FORECAST SHOWS THAT
TREND AS WELL. SO WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO PAY ATTENTION AS THIS
EVENT UNFOLDS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF AN AZO TO LAN LINE BETWEEN
18Z-00Z. FARTHER WEST OF THIS LINE THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY PRECIPITATION MAY JUST REMAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
WITH THE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY
LOWER TO IFR VALUES WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU APR 24 2025
NO MARINE ISSUES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT, STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THAT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. WHILE GUSTS CAPABLE OF GALES WILL BE
POSSIBLE, WE REMAIN UNSURE THAT IT WILL MAKE IT TO THE NEARSHORE
WATERS AND WHETHER OR NOT THEY WILL BE PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A GALE WARNING. AS SUCH, WE HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FROM TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
DISCUSSION...CERU
AVIATION...RAH
MARINE...CERU
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