951
FXUS63 KGRR 270729
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
329 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
- SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 33O AM EDT SUN APR 27 2025
- STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THE QUESTION REMAINS OF WHAT THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR STORMS
HEADING THROUGH THE STATE. A STRONG GRADIENT WILL BE MOVING
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH HEADED
NEAR THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DRIVEN BY A LLJ UP TO 60
KNOTS, THE BEST REGION OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS IN WISCONSIN.
YET AS THE MESOSCALE SYSTEM PROPAGATES EASTWARD, LINGERING STORMS
OVER THE LAKESHORE COULD REMAIN SEVERE. EXPERIMENTAL GUIDANCE
UNDERSTANDING ONLY REINFORCES THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR EARLY STORMS
BEFORE THE BOUNDARY MOVES EASTWARD. DRIER AIR ALONG WITH A HIGH WILL
RETURN LATE TUESDAY.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
INCHING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION LATE WED INTO THURS WILL BE
ANOTHER BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE STREAMING GULF MOISTURE AND WAA
NEAR THE MICHIGAN INDIANA BORDER.
THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING ISSUES ESPECIALLY AS SUCCESSIVE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE OVERALL PATTERN. THEIR REMAINS
SOME DISPARITY ON THE LOCATION OF THE MID LEVEL AND SFC LOW.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE POSITION OF EITHER IT PUTS MICHIGAN IN A GOOD
LOCATION FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING
MORE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY. A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO
MKG.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2025
CURRENTLY THERE IS NO CONCERNS FOR SMALL CRAFT. LOOKING AHEAD TO
MONDAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGHOUT THE DAY
INTO THE EVENING TIMEFRAME. WINDS SHOULD THEN SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS WILL FUEL
STRONG WINDS AND WAVES DANGEROUS TO SMALL CRAFT. THIS WILL BE
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ050>052-
056>059-064>067-071>074.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CERU
AVIATION...RAH
MARINE...CERU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page