037
FXUS63 KGRR 271753
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
153 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
- SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1150 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2025
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAVE BEEN
THINNING/DISSIPATING AS THEY ENTER MICHIGAN SO IT LOOKS LIKE OUR
MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST WILL HOLD THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASANT
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LIGHT WINDS
ALTHOUGH A CHILLY LAKE BREEZE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
BY MID AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 33O AM EDT SUN APR 27 2025
- STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THE QUESTION REMAINS OF WHAT THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR STORMS
HEADING THROUGH THE STATE. A STRONG GRADIENT WILL BE MOVING
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH HEADED
NEAR THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DRIVEN BY A LLJ UP TO 60
KNOTS, THE BEST REGION OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS IN WISCONSIN.
YET AS THE MESOSCALE SYSTEM PROPAGATES EASTWARD, LINGERING STORMS
OVER THE LAKESHORE COULD REMAIN SEVERE. EXPERIMENTAL GUIDANCE
UNDERSTANDING ONLY REINFORCES THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR EARLY STORMS
BEFORE THE BOUNDARY MOVES EASTWARD. DRIER AIR ALONG WITH A HIGH WILL
RETURN LATE TUESDAY.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
INCHING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION LATE WED INTO THURS WILL BE
ANOTHER BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE STREAMING GULF MOISTURE AND WAA
NEAR THE MICHIGAN INDIANA BORDER.
THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING ISSUES ESPECIALLY AS SUCCESSIVE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE OVERALL PATTERN. THEIR REMAINS
SOME DISPARITY ON THE LOCATION OF THE MID LEVEL AND SFC LOW.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE POSITION OF EITHER IT PUTS MICHIGAN IN A GOOD
LOCATION FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2025
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE TRENDING MORE FROM THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY NEAR AND
NORTH OF LUDINGTON (LDM). THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE VARIABILITY IN
THE WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON VS TONIGHT NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN,
INCLUDING MKG, DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE
BREEZE. SOUTH WINDS GUSTING OVER 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 14Z
MONDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2025
CURRENTLY THERE IS NO CONCERNS FOR SMALL CRAFT. LOOKING AHEAD TO
MONDAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGHOUT THE DAY
INTO THE EVENING TIMEFRAME. WINDS SHOULD THEN SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS WILL FUEL
STRONG WINDS AND WAVES DANGEROUS TO SMALL CRAFT. THIS WILL BE
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...MEADE
DISCUSSION...CERU
AVIATION...CAS
MARINE...CERU
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