576
FXUS63 KGRR 151931
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
331 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY EVENING
- WINDY SATURDAY, COOLER INTO NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2025
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
TONIGHT BETWEEN 8PM AND 2AM A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING WITH IT THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND TORNADOES.
THE MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE WITH THE OCCLUDED
FRONT WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME
CONVERGENCE IN THE WIND FIELDS AT 850-700MB. INSTABILITY HAS BEEN
GRADUALLY BUILDING THROUGH THE DAY WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES
CURRENTLY IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN
MINNESOTA AND ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. 0-1KM STORM
RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES PEAK AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE 100 TO 150
M2/S2 RANGE AND AROUND 200 M2/S2 FROM 0-3KM. PAIRED WITH 30 TO 40
KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000
J/KG THIS WILL BE A PRIME ENVIRONMENT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS, HENCE
THE INCREASED HAIL AND TORNADO RISK.
THERE IS SOME VARIABILITY IN THE STORM MODE AS IT HEADS INTO
WESTERN MICHIGAN. INDIVIDUAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
WISCONSIN AND MAY BECOME CLUSTERED OR FORM A LINE AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS THE LAKE INTO WESTERN MICHIGAN. IF STORMS TAKE A MORE
LINEAR FORMATION, THEN WINDS AND QUICK SPIN UP TORNADOES WOULD
BECOME THE MAIN CONCERN. ANY ISOLATED OR CLUSTERED SUPERCELLS
WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE ALL HAZARDS, ESPECIALLY HAIL.
WITH THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS EVENING, MAKE SURE YOU
HAVE A WAY TO RECEIVE WARNINGS AND A PLAN IN PLACE TO TAKE SHELTER
WHEN WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG FRIDAY EVENING
MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH INSTABILITY BUILDING THROUGH THE
DAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE DRY AIR CAUSING AN INVERTED V IN
SOUNDINGS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
DOWNBURSTS. LIFT PROVIDED BY THE POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
SWINGING AROUND THE 500MB LOW WILL MOVE IN AROUND 8PM FRIDAY
CAUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. SIMILAR TO THURSDAY
EVENING STORMS TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
- WINDY SATURDAY, COOLER INTO NEXT WEEK
THE SAME LOW MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION WILL GRADUALLY
TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. LINGERING SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SHOULD CLEAR EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
AS THE RAIN AND LOWER CLOUDS CLEAR, GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP. SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CALMER CONDITIONS MOVE IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SCT-BKN CUMULUS
AROUND 3000 TO 5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN
FROM 00-04Z FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCT
GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS, LARGE HAIL, AND TORNADOES.
ADDITIONALLY STORMS COULD BRIEFLY BRING MVFR CEILINGS AND IFR
VISIBILITIES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER ANY ONE LOCATION FOR
ABOUT AN HOUR. WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS THUNDERSTORMS EXIT
TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2025
A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 8 AND 10PM WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND WATERSPOUTS. ROUGH
WATER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ROUND OF STORMS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
MOVING IN BEHIND THE LINE. A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS MOVES IN
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BE STRONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY BRINGING WITH IT A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING DUE TO WINDS AND HIGH
WAVES.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
LMZ844>849.
DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...RAH
MARINE...RAH
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