726
FXUS63 KGRR 190747
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
347 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK
- WET PATTERN MIDWEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2025
- COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK
FORECAST REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT AS PATTERN CHANGE THROUGH
THIS WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK CLOUDY AND COOLER, NEGATIVELY TILTED
RIDGE WITH AN INFILTRATING LOW EXTENDING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE REGION ALLOWING FOR COLD AIR ADVECTION. THAT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THIS
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S THROUGH THE WEEK.
- WET PATTERN MIDWEEK
THE ABOVE DISCUSSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW
MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THERE REMAINS
SOME VARIATION ON THE ABOUT OF QPF THAT WILL MATERIALIZE. LATEST
EC DOES SHOW A TREND UP A HALF AND INCH TO AN INCH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH BUT A GOOD SOAKING RAIN
SHOULD BE IN STORE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NAEFS
ANOMALIES HINT AT THIS GIVEN THE PWATS THOUGH LATEST TRENDS KEEP
THE BEST MOISTURE SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 0200 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2025
MVFR CIGS REMAIN THROUGH THE CENTRAL MI TAF SITES. HOWEVER, THE
LATEST SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW CLOUDS OVERSPREADING TO THE
WEST. THAT OVERALL EXPECTATION CONTINUES FOR CLOUDS TO SPREAD BACK
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD
AFFECT THE AZO/BTL TERMINALS LAST. MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY WILL THEN
PERSIST AREAWIDE WELL INTO MONDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT
BETWEEN 09Z TO 13Z THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF IFR CIGS. CIGS WILL
IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAYTIME THOUGH TERMINALS FARTHER
EAST/NORTHEAST SUCH AS LAN AND JXN COULD REMAIN CLOUDY MOST OF THE
DAY MONDAY ALTHOUGH MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FUEL
ALTERNATES AND CLIMB THROUGH 4000 FT AGL RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE
DAY.
SPORADIC WIND GUSTINESS SHOULD LET UP BY 01Z WITH LIGHT NORTH
WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST FOR MONDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2025
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT HOWEVER WINDS
WILL REMAIN WEAKER. STRONG EASTERLY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BUILD
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THAT FLOW WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. THOUGH WAVE GROWTH IN THE NEAR SHORE WILL BE FETCH-
LIMITED, THE SUSTAINED SPEEDS ABOVE 20 KNOTS WILL STILL MAKE
CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS. THOSE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LMZ844>849.
DISCUSSION...CERU
AVIATION...CERU
MARINE...CERU
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