958
FXUS63 KGRR 191147
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
747 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK
- WET PATTERN MIDWEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2025
- COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK
FORECAST REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT AS PATTERN CHANGE THROUGH
THIS WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK CLOUDY AND COOLER, NEGATIVELY TILTED
RIDGE WITH AN INFILTRATING LOW EXTENDING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE REGION ALLOWING FOR COLD AIR ADVECTION. THAT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THIS
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S THROUGH THE WEEK.
- WET PATTERN MIDWEEK
THE ABOVE DISCUSSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW
MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THERE REMAINS
SOME VARIATION ON THE ABOUT OF QPF THAT WILL MATERIALIZE. LATEST
EC DOES SHOW A TREND UP A HALF AND INCH TO AN INCH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH BUT A GOOD SOAKING RAIN
SHOULD BE IN STORE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NAEFS
ANOMALIES HINT AT THIS GIVEN THE PWATS THOUGH LATEST TRENDS KEEP
THE BEST MOISTURE SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2025
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING THIS AFTERNOON. VFR WILL THEN DOMINATE
INTO TOMORROW. THE OTHER AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE A LOWER LEVEL
JET THAT BRINGS A PERIOD LLWS TO MKG AFTER 09Z TUESDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2025
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT HOWEVER WINDS
WILL REMAIN WEAKER. STRONG EASTERLY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BUILD
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THAT FLOW WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. THOUGH WAVE GROWTH IN THE NEAR SHORE WILL BE FETCH-
LIMITED, THE SUSTAINED SPEEDS ABOVE 20 KNOTS WILL STILL MAKE
CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS. THOSE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LMZ844>849.
DISCUSSION...CERU
AVIATION...CERU
MARINE...CERU
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