784
FXUS63 KGRR 191744
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
144 PM EDT MON MAY 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK
- WET PATTERN MIDWEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2025
- COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK
FORECAST REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT AS PATTERN CHANGE THROUGH
THIS WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK CLOUDY AND COOLER, NEGATIVELY TILTED
RIDGE WITH AN INFILTRATING LOW EXTENDING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE REGION ALLOWING FOR COLD AIR ADVECTION. THAT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THIS
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S THROUGH THE WEEK.
- WET PATTERN MIDWEEK
THE ABOVE DISCUSSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW
MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THERE REMAINS
SOME VARIATION ON THE ABOUT OF QPF THAT WILL MATERIALIZE. LATEST
EC DOES SHOW A TREND UP A HALF AND INCH TO AN INCH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH BUT A GOOD SOAKING RAIN
SHOULD BE IN STORE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NAEFS
ANOMALIES HINT AT THIS GIVEN THE PWATS THOUGH LATEST TRENDS KEEP
THE BEST MOISTURE SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT MON MAY 19 2025
THE LOWER CLOUDS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ARE SLOWLY LIFTING AND
DISSIPATING FROM SW TO NE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL SEE THAT
TREND CONTINUE, WITH VFR BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY 20-21Z THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LOWER VFR CLOUDS SHOULD THEN CLEAR OUT THIS
EVENING, LEAVING ONLY HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD.
OVERNIGHT, WE WILL SEE A LOW LEVEL JET MOVE OVER THE AREA, WITH
THE HIGHEST WINDS OVER KGRR AND KMKG. IT IS AT THESE TWO TERMINALS
THAT THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MENTION.
THE OTHER TERMINALS ARE JUST ENOUGH LOWER TO LEAVE OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW.
VFR CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE AT OUR TERMINALS
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. WE WILL SEE LIGHT RAIN DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE
AFTER AROUND 13-14Z. THE FEED OF LOW LEVEL DRIER FLOW WILL DELAY
LOWER CONDITIONS UNTIL AFTER 18Z TUESDAY. THE WINDS FROM THE EAST
WILL BECOME GUSTY MID TUESDAY MORNING, AND COULD GUST TO OVER 30
KNOTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2025
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT HOWEVER WINDS
WILL REMAIN WEAKER. STRONG EASTERLY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BUILD
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THAT FLOW WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. THOUGH WAVE GROWTH IN THE NEAR SHORE WILL BE FETCH-
LIMITED, THE SUSTAINED SPEEDS ABOVE 20 KNOTS WILL STILL MAKE
CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS. THOSE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LMZ844>849.
DISCUSSION...CERU
AVIATION...NJJ
MARINE...CERU
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