199
FXUS63 KGRR 051936
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
336 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SOME LATE WEEKEND RAIN CHANCES
- WARMING UP LATER NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2025
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SOME LATE WEEKEND RAIN CHANCES
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE
MID 50S (COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN) SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL MID NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY. ON FRIDAY, LINGERING MOISTURE / HIGHER HUMIDITY
OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN, AND PROXIMITY TO THE STATIONARY FRONT AND
WEAK LOW DRAPED ACROSS INDIANA/OHIO, MAY ALLOW A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP NEAR I-94.
THERE ARE A COUPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY MORNING MAY TOUCH OFF SHOWERS DEPENDING ON
ITS EXACT TRACK, WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP ABOUT 30 PERCENT IN
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. ON ITS HEELS IS A LARGER AND ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL
LOW DIVING IN FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA WITH A LEADING COLD FRONT
ARRIVING LATER SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE GREATER THAN 60
PERCENT NEAR I-96 AND TO THE NORTH. CAPE PROGGED AROUND 500 J/KG IS
WORTH A MENTION OF A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM SUNDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE SOME WIND SHEAR PRESENT ALSO, SUPPORTING A THREAT OF SOME
GUSTIER WINDS.
- WARMING UP LATER NEXT WEEK
ENSEMBLES ARE BROADLY IN AGREEMENT OF A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ARE
LOOKING TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY THURSDAY-
FRIDAY. WITH MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING INCREASING PWAT, SURFACE
DEW POINTS, AND CAPE LATE IN THE WEEK GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, BOTH
HEAT/HUMIDITY AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE OF THE
STORY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2025
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT MKG DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
LINGERING STRATUS FOR AZO, BTL, AND JXN AND WILDFIRE SMOKE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT AT GRR AND LAN, WITH MVFR
DEVELOPING AT AZO, BTL, AND JXN AS LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG
REDEVELOP. PREDOMINANTLY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2025
WEAK GRADIENT FLOW FROM A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK ON LAKE
MICHIGAN. WINDS AND WAVES INCREASE SUNDAY/MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE ON
THE WATER.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ037>040-043>046-
050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CAS
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
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