020
FXUS63 KGRR 061845
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
245 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SOME SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
- WARMING UP LATER NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2025
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SOME SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR
(HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S, LOWS IN THE MID 60S)... SLIGHTLY WARMER
ON SATURDAY BUT WITH DRY/COMFORTABLE DEW POINT AND HUMIDITY, AND A
SLIGHT COOL DOWN FOR MON-TUE.
THERE IS ABOUT A 30 PCT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY MORNING AS A WEAK UPPER-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND OHIO VALLEY LOW PASS BY. QUICKLY FOLLOWING WILL
BE A LARGER UPPER-LEVEL LOW LUMBERING IN FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA.
A LEADING COLD FRONT IS MORE LIKELY TO TOUCH OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR STORMS SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE NIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST MODEST
INSTABILITY WITH CAPE FOCUSED MAINLY IN THE LOWER MID-LEVELS BUT
JUST ENOUGH FOR LIGHTNING POTENTIAL. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP WITH
DAYTIME HEATING UNDERNEATH THE LOW MON-TUE.
- WARMING UP LATER NEXT WEEK
THE PATTERN SHIFTS TOWARD GENERALLY WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS TO GREAT LAKES MID-LATE WEEK. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S THU-FRI WITH DEW POINTS /
HUMIDITY ALSO STARTING TO CREEP UP. ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS SHOW ONLY
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AT THIS TIME.
CAPE AND QPF AMONG MODEL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO BECOME MORE COMMON
STARTING MAINLY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, THE UPSHOT BEING CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. MINOR UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THIS WEAK FLOW
REGIME AND RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT SUBDUED WITH HIT-OR-MISS DOWNPOURS BEING MORE OF THE
CONVECTIVE MODE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2025
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE OVERALL, THERE REMAINS SOME
LINGERING MVFR CIGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES DUE TO THE
HAZE/SMOKE. EXPECT THOSE CONDITIONS TO LINGER WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VSBYS TO
REMAIN MVFR DUE TO THE HAZE SMOKE INTO TOMORROW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2025
DAYTIME LAKE BREEZE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZE
WITH EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVE HEIGHTS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 10-15 KNOTS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BUILD UP WAVES TO 2-3 FEET. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF SWIM RISK BECOMING MODERATE WITH 2-4 FT WAVES ON
MONDAY.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MIZ071>074.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CAS
AVIATION...CERU
MARINE...CAS
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