644
FXUS63 KGRR 250724
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
324 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2025
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
OUR NEXT ROUND OF RAIN IS THANKS TO A 700MB SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE
MOISTURE AXIS THAT MOVES IN THIS MORNING. CURRENT TRACKING OF THE
RAIN MOVING OUT OF NE IL HAS IT ARRIVING IN WESTERN
MUSKEGON/OTTAWA COUNTIES AROUND 4AM. THESE SHOWERS WILL EXPAND
EASTWARD AND LIKELY FLAIR UP ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF I-96. CAN'T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS
MORNING WITH MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG.
THIS AFTERNOON MOST COULD REMAIN DRY WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-94 (30 TO 40 PERCENT). A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
GUSTY WINDS, BUT THE BETTER POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA INTO NORTHERN INDIANA WHICH IS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE CURRENT SPC
OUTLOOK.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO SHIFT INTO THE AREA
PROVIDING A SOURCE OF LIFT ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS
LIFT COULD SET UP MORE NORTH OF M-20, HENCE THE HIGHER POPS
OVERNIGHT (50 TO 70 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY.
THURSDAY SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL
DETERMINE OUR POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON FRIDAY.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES NOW UNTIL THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH, ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAIN. AS SEEN YESTERDAY AS STORMS MOVED THROUGH BATTLE CREEK,
RAINFALL RATES OVER AN INCH PER HOUR WERE OBSERVED. THOSE THAT SEE
STORMS TRACK OVER THE SAME AREA OVER A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME COULD
SEE SOME FLOODING IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY IN KNOWN TROUBLE SPOTS.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN, BUT ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS BRING BACK CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2025
OUR NEXT ROUND OF RAIN MOVES IN AROUND 9Z NEAR MKG AND SHIFTS EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS AREA CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR IN
NORTHEAST IL. HEAVY RAIN COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES DOWN TO MVFR
VALUES ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
WHETHER WE'LL HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER, THEREFORE KEPT
THIS MORNING'S RAIN AS SHOWERS.
THIS AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN AZO TO JXN LINE, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NORTH OF THIS LINE. THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING COULD REMAIN DRY, BEFORE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER 3Z THURSDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2025
WINDS AND WAVES REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT CRITERIA INTO NEXT WEEK. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE
THE DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES ARE OVERALL
DURING THE DAY, BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORM.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. WINDS THEN SHIFT BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY TO THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...RAH
MARINE...RAH
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