653
FXUS63 KGRR 271759
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
159 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT, HUMID, AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
- DRIER OVER THE WEEKEND
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
- HOT, HUMID, AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
OUR CURRENT LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO EXIT
EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK, MEANWHILE BEHIND THE LINE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY SHOWERS OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL
MOVE IN EARLY THIS MORNING PROVIDING ANOTHER FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS MORNINGS
CONVECTION, BUT COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KALAMAZOO TO LANSING LINE.
THIS IS DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING FRONT ALLOWING INSTABILITY AROUND
2000 TO 3000 J/KG TO BUILD AHEAD OF IT. WE'LL BE ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE 500MB JET OF 30-40 KNOTS PROVIDING SOME UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE. SOUNDING PROFILES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS, ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED
BY VARIOUS MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE AND THE UPDATED SPC OUTLOOK.
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO EXIT THE AREA BY THE EARLY EVENING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL REMAIN HIGH TOWARD 2 INCHES. AS
SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES
ARE POSSIBLE AND COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS
AND KNOWN TROUBLE SPOTS.
LASTLY IT WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND STEAMY DAY UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THAT KALAMAZOO TO LANSING
LINE. HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE 90S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
SOME SPOTS APPROACHING 100. WITH ONLY ISOLATED SPOTS POSSIBLY
HITTING 100 DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS AND CLOUD COVER, HELD OFF ON ANY
HEAT ADVISORY.
- DRIER OVER THE WEEKEND
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH A COOLER DAY
FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S AND HEAT INDICES
MATCHING AIR TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WARM UP ONCE MORE FOR
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN. HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ARE
EXPECTED.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN NEXT WEEK
OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH EACH NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MOST OF THE LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE DRY THOUGH AFTER RAIN
EXITS THE AREA MONDAY WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE. THEREFORE KEPT
THE NBM POPS OF LESS THAT 20 PERCENT, BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR IF
MOISTURE IMPROVES WITHIN THESE SHORTWAVES. AFTER MONDAY,
TEMPERATURES LOOK A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE THE CONCERN FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
PERIOD. RADAR SHOWS DEVELOPING STORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THESE
STORMS SHOULD MISS MKG AND PROBABLY GRR, BUT WE'VE INCLUDED A
TEMPO FOR THE OTHER TERMINALS FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE THREAT SHOULD PASS FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY
EVENING LEADING TO A BROKEN VFR CLOUD DECK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
WE'LL BE WATCHING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY SOUTH OF MKG AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST. WAVES WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND A FOOT THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER, NORTH OF MKG,
WAVES WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FEET BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...04
MARINE...04
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