964
FXUS63 KGRR 081943
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
343 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF WORK WEEK
- MORE WIDESPREAD, ORGANIZED SYSTEM ON SATURDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
- SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA HAS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING THROUGH INDIANA TO MISSOURI. AS THAT TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH OVERNIGHT IT COULD HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SPARK SOME LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME OF THE CAMS DO SHOW POTENTIALLY 500 TO 1000
J/KG OF CAPE MOVING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS ALONG WITH A NUB OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR INTO NORTHERN LOWER COULD ALLOW STORMS TO
LINGER AND STRENGTHEN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AS THAT TROUGH CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION EXPECT MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO PULL UP SOME
GULF MOISTURE AND DEEPEN, WHICH SHOULD FURTHER AID AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. THIS SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE OF CAPE AND WHILE SPC
HAS THE AREA ONLY OUTLOOKED FOR GENERAL THUNDER THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME STRONG, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE US 127 CORRIDOR.
- FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF WORK WEEK
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS AT BAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE AS WARM AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.
HIGHS COULD GET INTO THE LOW 90S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- MORE WIDESPREAD, ORGANIZED SYSTEM ON SATURDAY
MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON A MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN EVENT SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHERN US, AND ANOTHER HIGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE WEST COAST,
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. AS THAT TROUGH MOVES EAST, IT WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPENS,EXTENDING INTO THE UPPER MID WEST BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THAT TROUGH SHOULD BE ADVECTING MOISTURE BETWEEN THE
BEFORE MENTIONED HIGH'S FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA, ALONG WITH WARM
AIR. THIS WARM, MOIST ADVECTION SHOULD BRING 1.75 PWATS OF
MOISTURE, ACCORDING TO THE NAEFS. WHILE NOT HIGHLY ANOMALOUS, IT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY.
THAT THROUGH SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY TO THE EAST WITH DRIER, ZONAL
FLOW IN ITS WAKE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 114 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED TOWARDS MKG THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, BASED ON LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR VIRGA TO VERY LIGHT RAIN (NO
RESTRICTIONS) WOULD BE OBSERVED. INCREASED, THOUGH STILL
SCATTERED, SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BEGINNING THIS EVENING AS A
WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. HAVE ADDED -SHRA AT AZO AND BTL WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER AND HAVE LEFT VCSH AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS.
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BUT THUNDER CHANCES ARE TOO
LOW FOR TAF INCLUSION. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING,
PARTICULARLY FOR LAN AND JXN AS DAYTIME HEATING BUILDS
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF THE
TAFS AT PRESENT BUT THUNDER COULD OCCUR WITH THIS ROUND OF SHOWERS
AS WELL. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY RESTRICTIONS GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE
BUT MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR IN ANY SHOWERS, AND PARTICULARLY
THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
AS THE TROUGH EXITS TOMORROW AFTERNOON, NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER GRADIENT FORMING ALONG THE LAKESHORE. AS THE WINDS SHIFT
FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE NORTH, IT COULD BRING WINDS UPWARDS OF
15 TO 25 KTS AND WAVES UPWARDS OF 2 TO 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
GRAND HAVEN. THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTIONS OF TIMING AND STRENGTH.
SO HAVE HELD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR NOW BUT ANOTHER SET OF
MARINE/SWIM HEADLINES REMAIN POSSIBLE.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CERU
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...CERU
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