116
FXUS63 KGRR 141121
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
721 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR RAIN WED/THU AND NEXT WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2025
- CHANCES FOR RAIN WED/THU AND NEXT WEEKEND
ZONAL FLOW WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING BRINGS FAIR WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY THEN RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR MID-WEEK WITH THE APPROACH
OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE GFS
HAS BACKED OFF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, NOW SHOWING RATHER WEAK
SHEAR OF 20 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER PULSE THUNDERSTORM ENVIRONMENT AND ONLY ISOLATED WIND
GUSTS AS A THREAT. STORM TOTAL QPF IS ONLY AROUND 0.15
INCHES AVERAGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SE CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK WITH ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS NORTHERN PERIPHERY COULD RESULT IN MCS ACTIVITY MAKING IT
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
POINT WITH LOCATION AND TIMING.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 721 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST BLO 10 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2025
WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
SLOWLY INCREASING SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND NORTH WINDS COULD RAMP
UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATER THURSDAY.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MIZ037>040-
043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
MARINE...OSTUNO
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