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FXUS63 KGRR 040535
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
135 AM EDT MON AUG 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WILDFIRE SMOKE TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
- WARM AND DRY THROUGH MID WEEK, HOTTER INTO NEXT WEEKEND
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2025
- WILDFIRE SMOKE TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
WILDFIRES THROUGH CANADA REMAIN PROLIFIC. THE SMOKE FROM THOSE
WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM FROM THE NORTHWEST AND LITTER
MICHIGAN'S AIRSPACE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THE SMOKE WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE AIR QUALITY ISSUES, ACCORDING TO EGLE, THROUGH
THAT TIMEFRAME.
COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN PARTICULATE
MATTER COULD ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
WEAK FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK. THERE WAS SOME HOPE OF A WEAK TROUGH
MIDWEEK BUT THE HIGH OVERHEAD SHOULD BIFURCATE ANY MOISTURE AND
WHILE THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO FORM ON ANY LAKE
BOUNDARY, THOSE CHANCES ARE LOW. ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK WOULD BE LATE WEDNESDAY.
- WARM AND DRY THROUGH MID WEEK, HOTTER INTO NEXT WEEKEND
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RAMP UP END OF THE WEEK AND
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPS INTO THE 90S THROUGH
THAT TIMEFRAME. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED, WITH
HIGHS INTO THE 90S WHICH IS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD, ALONG WITH THE WARMTH AND DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO STIFLE ANY PRECIPITATION INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND
WHILE THE MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS CONCUR ON TEMP INCREASES, THEY
BECOME DIVERGENT ON THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN UPPER LOW TO SKIRT ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER, MAKING A FRONT SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE POTENTIALLY LATE NEXT
WEEKEND INTO EARLY THE WEEK OF THE 10TH. THE EC, HOWEVER, STALLS
THE UPPER LOW AND KEEPS THE FLOW MORE ZONAL, DRIER AND THUS HAS
LESS IF ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE REGION. SO ENSEMBLE WISE, THERE
ARE MANY MEMBERS THAT BRING IN PRECIP BUT MANY THAT DON'T. IF THE
FLOW CAN TAP GULF MOISTURE THEN THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
THE DRY AIR MASS. HOWEVER THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT MON AUG 4 2025
THE TERMINALS ARE SEEING SOME RESIDUAL SMOKE THAT MIXED DOWN TO
THE SFC YESTERDAY, AND SOME LIGHT FOG STARTING TO FORM AS WE START
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE SMOKE IS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE
OBSERVATIONS INCLUDING KLAN WHERE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR
SKIES, BUT A BKN050 DECK IS BEING REPORTED. WE EXPECT THAT MOST OF
THE TERMINALS WILL SEE VISIBILITIES DROP DOWN A BIT WITH FOG
COMBINING WITH THE RESIDUAL SMOKE. IFR IS LIKELY AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT KGRR AND KMKG PER SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS LAST NIGHT.
WE SHOULD SEE A IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES AFTER SUNRISE AS THE
FOG DIMINISHES. WE ARE THINKING THAT WE SHOULD SEE ALL SITES GO
VFR BY MID MORNING. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT AN INCREASING FLOW
FROM THE SE MAY CLEAR OUT THE SFC SMOKE A BIT. WITH THIS IN MIND,
HAVE NOT DROPPED VISIBILITIES INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT THIS
TIME. SOME HIGHER BASED DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 116 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD RESULT IN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. THUS, NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID WEEK. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK, THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST AND
WINDS WILL INCREASE BUT STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF MARINE
HEADLINES WILL BE NECESSARY.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MIZ037>040-
043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CERU
AVIATION...NJJ
MARINE...04
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