341
FXUS63 KGRR 100830
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
430 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID INTO EARLY WEEK
- SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY
- COOLER SECOND HALF OF WEEK WITH HEAT RETURNING NEXT WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
- HOT AND HUMID INTO EARLY WEEK
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE WILL BRING A CONVEYOR
BELT OF HOT AND HUMID AIR THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW.
THIS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 70S.
THOUGH IT WILL BE HOT AND STICKY, THE APPARENT T'S WILL BE JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S. THIS AIR FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY, WHEN THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY TREK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SHIFTING
THE WINDS. TUESDAY SHOULD BE COOLER DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
RAINFALL.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST AND THE SHORT WAVES
PROPAGATE AROUND IT, THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY FROM THE BEFORE
MENTIONED CONVEYOR BELT SHOULD COUPLE WITH PORTIONS OF THE LLJ
THAT SHOULD MOVE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. THAT SHOULD BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE ALONG THE
LAKESHORE, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE NW. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FOR THE
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH. IT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTIONS ON WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE
WILL BE. SEVERAL RUNS HAVE THE BEST QPF SOUTHWARD. THAT STATED,
TUESDAY IS THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. AMOUNTS
REMAIN IN QUESTION, WITH AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.
- COOLER SECOND HALF OF WEEK WITH HEAT RETURNING NEXT WEEKEND
TUESDAY'S RAINFALL AND MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOLER WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN
SET UP LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND SETTING UP ANOTHER HOT AND
HUMID WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 115 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
LATEST RADAR AS OF 0545Z HAS LINE OF STORMS MOVING SLOWLY OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN AND ONSHORE NORTH OF MKG. WILL CONTINUE A TEMPO
GROUP IN MKG TAF UNTIL 09Z FOR TSRA AS THESE STORMS MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY FADE OVERNIGHT.
LATEST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP SHOWERS STORMS NORTH OF I 96 SO
NOT EXPECTING SHOWERS/STORMS TO AFFECT ANY OTHER TAF SITE THROUGH
12Z SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE TAF
SITES AGAIN TODAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AFTER 21Z. LATEST MODELS HAVE THEM POSSIBLE AFFECTING THE
WESTERN TAF SITES OF MKG AND GRR AND MAYBE AZO BETWEEN 21Z AND 06Z
MONDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE THIS MORNING.
HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING DUE TO STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. THAT PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF SUNDAY MORNING.
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUE TODAY. THIS CONTINUES TO BRING
MODERATE TO HIGH WAVES TO THE POINTS AND THEIR BEACHES. SO EXPECT
WINDS AND WAVE DANGEROUS TO SMALL CRAFT THIS MORNING AND THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND BEACHES NORTH
OF WHITEHALL.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ037-
043.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ848-
849.
DISCUSSION...CERU
AVIATION...CERU
MARINE...CERU
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