465
FXUS63 KGRR 101147
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
747 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID INTO EARLY WEEK
- SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY
- COOLER SECOND HALF OF WEEK WITH HEAT RETURNING NEXT WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
- HOT AND HUMID INTO EARLY WEEK
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE WILL BRING A CONVEYOR
BELT OF HOT AND HUMID AIR THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW.
THIS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 70S.
THOUGH IT WILL BE HOT AND STICKY, THE APPARENT T'S WILL BE JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S. THIS AIR FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY, WHEN THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY TREK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SHIFTING
THE WINDS. TUESDAY SHOULD BE COOLER DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
RAINFALL.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST AND THE SHORT WAVES
PROPAGATE AROUND IT, THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY FROM THE BEFORE
MENTIONED CONVEYOR BELT SHOULD COUPLE WITH PORTIONS OF THE LLJ
THAT SHOULD MOVE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. THAT SHOULD BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE ALONG THE
LAKESHORE, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE NW. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FOR THE
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH. IT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTIONS ON WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE
WILL BE. SEVERAL RUNS HAVE THE BEST QPF SOUTHWARD. THAT STATED,
TUESDAY IS THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. AMOUNTS
REMAIN IN QUESTION, WITH AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.
- COOLER SECOND HALF OF WEEK WITH HEAT RETURNING NEXT WEEKEND
TUESDAY'S RAINFALL AND MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOLER WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN
SET UP LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND SETTING UP ANOTHER HOT AND
HUMID WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
BRIEF MVFR AZO THIS MORNING WITH PERHAPS VCSH AT MKG. HOWEVER, ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE NORTH OF TAF SITES. SO VFR SHOULD
DOMINATE OVERALL. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY LATE THIS MORNING.
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. WHILE
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. THEY LOOK TO BE MORE ISOLATED
THEN THIS PAST NIGHT. SO HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF TAFS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 717 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TODAY. SO EXPECT WINDS AND WAVES
DANGEROUS TO SMALL CRAFT THIS MORNING AND THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON TO THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND BEACHES NORTH OF WHITEHALL.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ037-
043.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ848-
849.
DISCUSSION...CERU
AVIATION...CERU
MARINE...CERU
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